The profit of 3Q is basically in line with the forecast, and the main business is developing steadily.
According to the financial report, 1-3Q22 Central South Media had a revenue of 8.692 billion yuan, an increase of 11.3%, a net profit of 1.071 billion yuan, an increase of 5.9%, and a net profit of 1.136 billion yuan, an increase of 14.8%. The performance was basically in line with the forecast (net profit of return to mother / deduction of net profit of 1.41 billion yuan). Of this total, 3Q22 achieved revenue of 2.437 billion yuan in a single quarter, up 6.1 percent; net profit returned to its mother was 238 million yuan, down 3.8 percent; and 259 million yuan was deducted from non-return net profit, an increase of 8.4 percent, which mainly came from changes in the fair value of Pofu Fund. The main business of the company is developing steadily, but considering the change of fair value, we adjust the net profit of returning to the mother in 22-24 years to 153917661887 million yuan (original value: 16.22x17671888 million), and the average PE of 22-year comparable company Wind is 11x. Considering the leading position of the company, we give the company 14X PE for 22 years, the target price is 12.04yuan (previous value: 12.60RMB), and maintain the "buy" rating.
Under the pressure of macro epidemic, the main business of publishing and distribution has grown steadily.
Under the macro and epidemic pressure, the company's main publishing and distribution businesses have achieved steady growth, with 1-3Q22 revenue increasing by 11.3% to 8.692 billion yuan, of which 3Q22 revenue is 2.437 billion yuan, up 6.1%. In terms of distribution business, the company has obvious advantages in educational categories, with continuous growth in quality reading, vocational education and theme publishing.
In terms of publishing business, according to the company's financial report, the sales of 1-3Q22 general book publishing business were 1.172 billion yuan, an increase of 14.0%, of which 3Q code was 464 million yuan, an increase of 2.7%. The revenue of 1-3Q22 was 455 million yuan, an increase of 10.6%, of which 3Q revenue was 176 million yuan, an increase of 0.7%.
The gross profit margin of 3Q22 is basically stable, and the expense rate has improved obviously during the period.
1-3Q22 company gross margin 44.52%, year-on-year + 0.76pct, of which 3Q22 gross profit margin 46.31%, year-on-year-0.80pct. In terms of expense rate, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate of 1-3Q22 is 16.7%, 11.8%, 0.94%, 0.85%, respectively, compared with the same period of last year + 0.57/-0.93/+0.60/+0.03pct, 28.6% and + 0.28pct, respectively. Among them, the 3Q22 sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate is 19.0%, 10.9%, 1.4%, 1.4%, 1.1%, respectively, compared with the same period last year + 0.43/-4.00/+0.76/+0.15pct. With the income growth, the management expenses continue to be diluted, and the overall expense rate is the same as the same period as the same period last year-2.67pct.
The main business of publishing and distribution grows steadily and maintains the "buy" rating.
The company adheres to the main business, and the publishing and distribution business grows steadily. Taking into account the fair value change, we adjust the 22-24 return net profit to 1539x17661887 million (original value: 16.22Universe 17671888 million), 22-year comparable company Wind consensus expected PE average of 11x, taking into account the company's leading position, we give the company 22-year 14X PE, target price 12.04 yuan, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the risk of repeated disturbance of the epidemic, the publication and distribution business is not as expected.