3Q22 deducts non-homing net profit + 250% from the same period last year, raising profit forecast
Geodian 1-3Q22 achieved revenue of 11.1 billion yuan, year-on-year + 24%, net profit of 820 million yuan, + 14%, deduction of 820 million yuan, + 23%; corresponding 3Q22 revenue of 3.4 billion yuan, + 32%, net profit of 68 million yuan, + 355%, deduction of 77 million yuan, + 250%. Due to the heating season in the third and fourth quarters, the company usually performed poorly in the second half of the year, but with the substantial growth in new energy installations, it is expected to hedge the pressure on the thermal power and heating business. The proportion of new energy installation and minority equity is forecast to be lowered, and the 22-24 net return profit for 22-24 years will be raised to 8.812.7 trillion yuan (the previous value is 7.7pm 11.3 / 1.49 billion yuan), and that of BPS 4.06 to 4.52 pounds 5.11 yuan. Referring to the 22-year average comparable PB 1.7x (Wind consensus expectations), the company's 22-24 return net profit CAGR (54%) is higher than the comparable company average (32%), giving the 22-year target 2.0xPB, the target price of 8.12 yuan (the previous value of 8.84 yuan based on 22-year 2.2xPB) to maintain the overweight rating.
The installation of new energy has increased significantly, effectively hedging the poor performance of thermal power and heating pressure companies in the heating season in the second half of the year, with both 3Q15-21 and 4Q12-21 deducting non-net losses. At the end of June, the company installed 8.91 million kilowatts of new energy, an increase of 176 million kilowatts over the beginning of the year. Thanks to the substantial growth in new energy installation, the company's profitability has improved significantly (3Q22 sales gross profit margin / net sales margin increased 3.8/3.6pct compared with the same period last year), and the company's 3Q22 deducted non-net profit to turn a profit (3Q21 loss of 52 million yuan).
The comprehensive energy develops steadily, and the pumping business advances normally.
The company focuses on promoting comprehensive energy projects such as distributed energy, geothermal energy and biomass energy, demonstrating the application of hydrogen energy, energy storage and green transportation. In September, the company's Daan Fengguang green hydrogen synthesis ammonia integration project was approved (for the record), which will build new 700MW wind power / 100MW photovoltaic, hydrogen production / storage and 180000 tons of synthetic ammonia plant, the project will open a good start for the company in the field of hydrogen energy. In May, the company won the Wangqing 5GW pumping project, with a scale of 1.8GW in the first phase and a planned investment of 12.7 billion yuan. In October, the company's board of directors approved the establishment of Wangqing pumped Company to determine the main body for the follow-up development and construction of the project.
It is expected to enjoy the valuation premium and maintain the increased rating.
Comparable company 22-year PB average 1.7x (Wind consensus expectations), the company's current stock price corresponds to 22-year 1.5xPB. The company's new energy installation continues to rise, and its performance is expected to be significantly repaired. The company's 22-24 return net profit (CAGR) (54%) is higher than that of comparable companies (32%), and the company is expected to enjoy a valuation premium; a 22-year 2.0xPB with a target price of 8.12 yuan per share.
Risk hint: the growth of new energy installation is lower than expected; the rise in coal prices is higher than expected; and the abandonment rate is higher than expected.