Events:
In October 2022, the company released its three-quarter report for 2022. In the first three quarters, the operating income was 498 million yuan, up 15.91% from the same period last year. The net profit returned to the mother was 16 million yuan, an increase of 32.21% over the same period last year. The net profit in the third quarter was 4.0845 million yuan, down 34.33% from the same period last year, and 33.83% from the previous year. The performance is in line with expectations.
On the same day, the company signed a composite copper foil equipment agreement with Dongwei Technology and Tengsheng Technology, and the new material business is booming.
Short-term decline in profitability, new materials business ushered in a new growth point in the first three quarters of 2022. Affected by the reduction in the equipment production rate of downstream panel manufacturers and the increase in the proportion of silver and other precious metals in evaporated products, the company's gross profit margin in the first three quarters was 13.93%, down from the same period last year. The gross profit margin in the first three quarters was 13.72%, 17.21% and 10.93%, respectively. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company's net interest rate was 3.80%, down 0.59pct from the same period last year. With the large-scale application of HJT targets and PET copper foil, we believe that the company's profit space is expected to be further improved.
Ploughing coating materials for 20 years, HJT targets rise abruptly based on their accumulated strength.
A Shi Chuang entered Apple Inc's supply chain in 2013 and served more than 400 customers, including BOE, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, Xinyi Solar and Sunny Optical. Not only that, the company target R & D system is perfect, independent research and development of more than 200 types of high-end coating materials, high-purity molybdenum target into the first-line panel factory in 2022, ITO mass production in 2017, the overall according to optical, glass coating, panels, semiconductors from low-end to high-end path development, with the continuous release of HJT production capacity, we expect the company's HJT target production of 27106x276 tons in 2015-24.
Experienced PVD equipment, accelerated verification of composite copper foil
Technology, Tengsheng Technology officially signed composite copper foil equipment agreement, will begin the formal production of lithium battery fluid collector composite foil (including copper foil, aluminum foil), its PET (PP) and other polymer materials as the substrate, through PVD process and electroplating process, the upper and lower sides precipitate metal film into composite film. Compared with the existing electrolysis or Calendering process, the composite film has the advantages of low cost, high combustion safety and high energy density, which is expected to help to further reduce the cost of lithium battery in the future. In terms of vacuum equipment, the company maintains close cooperation with Aifa, AKT and other top PVD equipment manufacturers at home and abroad, and is expected to have an advantage in the research and development of composite copper foil.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
In the future, the company is expected to continue to benefit from the large-scale application of HJT targets and PET copper foil. We estimate that the company's operating income from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.9% and 9.3 billion yuan, respectively, with a corresponding growth rate of 13.1%, 34.0%, 29.5%, 0.29, 0.69 / 110 million yuan and 66.1%, 136.4%, 58.6%, respectively. In 2023-24, the CAGR reached 93.63%, and the corresponding EPS was 0.19, 0.45, 0.72 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE was 121.1, 51.2, and 32.3 times, respectively. According to the valuation of the comparable company, the 23-year PE of the company is 65.5 times, corresponding to the target price of 29.48 yuan, while maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: heterojunction target verification is not as expected, and target gross profit margin is subject to price fluctuations.