The company publishes three quarterly reports for 2022. In the first three quarters, the operating income was 15.4 billion yuan, + 15.6% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit returned to the home was-570 million yuan,-13.9% compared with the same period last year. In the third quarter alone, the company achieved an operating income of 6.59 billion yuan + 29.1% compared with the same period last year, and a net profit of 100 million yuan, + 130.6% compared with the same period last year.
Make a profit in a single quarter, and the management continues to improve. In the third quarter, the company produced 1.3789 million live pigs, an increase of 74.1% over the same period last year. At the end of the third quarter, the company kept 2.1795 million live pigs, an increase of 17.22% over the same period last year, and an increase of 21.59% over the end of December 2021. After the previous optimization and adjustment, since May this year, the production index of the company's sow farm has been greatly improved, and the corresponding improvement in the cost of fattening pigs will be more obvious. The company plans to reduce the cost of weaned piglets to less than 400 yuan per piglet and fattening costs to about 17 yuan / kg by the end of this year.
The improvement of aquaculture facilities has been accelerated, and production capacity expansion has been continuously promoted. At the end of the third quarter, the company had about 300000 sows and 60, 000 reserve sows, an increase of 20, 000 compared with June. The company aims to store 340000 sows by the end of this year and 400000 by the end of next year, which can match the target of 8 million next year in terms of production capacity. At present, the company has about 350000 sow fields, which can reach 37-38 by the end of the year. Sow fields have been basically guaranteed. Fattening self-construction and leasing fields have been accelerated. At present, 2 million are planned to reach 2.7 million by the end of the year, in order to achieve 60% in the first half of next year. 70% fattening target in the second half of the year.
The cash flow situation improved and the asset-liability ratio decreased. As pig prices picked up and the company returned to profit, the net cash flow generated by the company's operating activities was 205 million in the third quarter, compared with 18 million in the first three quarters. At the same time, the company's convertible bonds have been redeemed, and the asset-liability ratio has dropped to 79.16%, which is lower than that of Q2 by 5.14pct, and the cash flow pressure has significantly improved. At present, the sow field of the company does not need more capital investment; in terms of fattening, the company will complete the field expansion or timely supporting part of the stocking with light asset leasing mode, and the demand for capital expenditure may be reduced in the future.
Since October, pig prices have continued to rise. We believe that it is difficult to reverse the supply pattern in the next two quarters, superimposed consumption expectations, and pig prices are expected to remain strong. We raise our profit forecast and estimate that the 22-24 year net profit will be-1.41,17.68 and 524 million yuan respectively (the original forecast-1.66,16.82,507 million). According to the comparable company valuation, 23 years of 8xPE will be given. The target price is 16.23 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint
Epidemic disease risk, pig price fluctuation risk, cash flow risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, food safety risk and so on.