The company announced the third quarterly report of 2022: the net profit of returning to its mother was 2.01 billion yuan, up 4.6% from the same period last year. 1) performance:
Revenue in the first three quarters was 6.65 billion, up 0.1% from the same period last year; net profit from return to home was 2.01 billion yuan, up 4.6% from the same period last year; and net profit from non-return to home was 1.27 billion yuan, down 30.3% from the same period last year. Of this total, 22Q3 achieved revenue of 2.55 billion yuan, up 5.5% from the same period last year; net profit from home was 1.16 billion yuan, up 62.5% from the same period last year; and net profit from non-return was 510 million yuan, down 25.2% from the same period last year. Note: Shenzhen Investment Control Infrastructure was included in the scope of group merger according to the same control in January 2022, and the company made retroactive adjustments to the annual consolidated statement data before 2022.
2) profit margin: gross profit in the first three quarters is 38.4%, year-on-year-3.1pts; net return rate is 30.3%, year-on-year + 1.1pts; deduction of non-return net interest rate is 19.1%, year-on-year-9.5pts. 3) Investment income: 1.43 billion in the first three quarters, up 93.4% from the same period last year. Mainly because: the joint land purchase completed the capital reduction procedures, the premium enjoyed by the company for the unilateral capital increase of other shareholders in the previous year was transferred from the capital reserve to the investment income, so the investment income increased by 921 million yuan.
Toll road business: promote the reconstruction and expansion project of machine-load highway. 1) the average daily toll income of 22Q3's main holding road production: affected by the domestic epidemic situation, the year-on-year changes of Meiguan Expressway / East Section of Chi-he / West Section of Chi-he / Yanjiang Expressway / Outer Ring Project / Longda Expressway / Shuiguan Expressway / Shuiguan extension Section / Qinglian Expressway were-13.6%,-10.1%,-10.4%,-15.5%, + 5.4%,-5.7%,-11.6%,-20.8% and-22.9% respectively. In addition, the company transferred 10% of the shares of Nanjing third Bridge for about 175 million yuan, the proportion of equity increased from 25% to 35%, and the change of industrial and commercial registration was completed on September 27, 2022. 2) Project construction investment: the company signed a contract with the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Communications on September 30, 2022 for the reconstruction and expansion project of the machine-he highway, with a total investment of about 43.29 billion yuan. The Shenzhen municipal government will arrange an investment subsidy of 15 billion yuan. The company, as the social capital side, is responsible for raising about 28.29 billion yuan in construction funds, of which the company plans to contribute about 12.99 billion yuan with its own funds, and intends to introduce Shenzhen Special Exchange as a cooperative investor. It raises 15.3 billion yuan to invest in this project, which is expected to enhance the development space and core advantages of the company's main toll road business after reconstruction and expansion.
Large environmental protection plate: the industrial strategic layout is becoming more and more perfect. 1) solid waste resource treatment: in the first three quarters, the company handled 644000 tons of organic waste, with operating income of 320 million yuan, of which 22Q3 treated 242000 tons of organic waste, with operating income of 120 million yuan. 2) Clean energy: in the first three quarters, the company's wind power project online electricity 1453GWh, year-on-year + 43.0%, and table income achieved 540 million yuan, year-on-year + 32.4%; of which 22Q3 wind power project online electricity 485GWh, year-on-year + 64.9%, year-on-year combined table income reached 180 million yuan, + 56.7%. In addition, the company also has a 20% stake in Huaian Zhongheng 99.4MW wind power project.
Investment suggestions: 1) We maintain the company's profit forecast for 2022-2024, that is, the estimated return net profit is 25.5,27.7 and 2.97 billion yuan, corresponding to the corresponding EPS of 1.17,1.27,1.36 yuan and PE of 7,6 and 6 times respectively in 2022-2024. 2) with reference to the company's PE (excluding the impact of 2020) in the past five years, we give 7.8x PE to the expected profit in 2023, corresponding to the one-year target price of RMB9.93, which is expected to increase by 29% over the current price, continue to be optimistic about the promotion of the company's dual main business, continue to enhance the value of the industrial chain, and maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: affected by the epidemic, traffic declined more than expected, environmental protection projects landed less than expected and so on.
