Brief comment on performance
On October 27, the company released its results for the third quarter of 2022, with operating income of 18.713 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2022, + 18.59% year-on-year, and net profit of 1.712 billion yuan,-15.56%, in line with expectations.
Business analysis
Revenue rose sharply in the third quarter of 2022 compared with the same period last year, and profits were weighed down by the price of raw materials. The revenue of the company's main products increased over the same period last year, mainly due to the continued high price of coal and coke in the third quarter. The decline in the company's homing profit over the same period last year is mainly due to a sharp increase in the cost of coking coal of raw materials, which exceeds the selling price of the products. at present, the supply and demand of coke is still tight, and the price of coke is still high, and it is expected that the price of coke will maintain the current price in the future. the fourth quarter is mostly the peak season of the coke industry, it is expected that the gross margin of the company's coke products will pick up for the whole year, and the company is optimistic about the company's annual performance.
The holding subsidiary has the second highest risk in FCV in the first three quarters of the country, and hydrogen energy business is expected to grow significantly. Feichi Technology, a subsidiary of the company, has a total of 342vehicles insured in FCV from January to September in 2022, ranking second in the country. Considering that most of the first three quarters of the industry are in the stages of signing orders, system design, vehicle testing, etc., the fourth quarter is actually the peak of production and sales. From January to September, the FCV sales volume is about 50% for the whole year. Flying Technology FCV sales are expected to be nearly 1,000 vehicles for the whole year, contributing about 1 billion yuan in revenue. In addition, the company has built 4 hydrogenation stations, and a total of 15 hydrogenation integrated energy stations have been started and planned. The layout of the whole industry chain is effective, and it is expected that the contribution of hydrogen business in the company's performance in 2022 is expected to increase.
The main industry of coking coal accelerates its transformation and forms a synergistic effect with the hydrogen energy plate. The company has an existing coking capacity of 7.15 million tons / year, the company acquires 100% equity of Jiashun Coking, and builds a new coal coke hydrogen industry base. The company will gradually transform and upgrade from traditional energy to hydrogen energy, and the by-product coke oven gas is rich in 55% hydrogen, which can obtain industrial hydrogen on a large scale, low cost and efficiently, so that the main coking industry and hydrogen energy plate form a synergistic effect.
Profit adjustment and investment suggestions
The prices of coke and coal have been relatively stable recently. It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.58 billion yuan and 0.62 billion yuan respectively, with a corresponding EPS of 0.62 billion yuan and a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The major shareholder Meijin Group has a high equity pledge rate; the development of hydrogen energy industry is not as expected; the risk of coke price decline
