Main points of investment
2022Q3's operating income is-11.62% compared with the same period last year, and its net profit is-17.10% compared with the same period last year. "climbing period" capacity needs to be released and the "overweight" rating is maintained.
Under the ultra-high base last year, the growth rate of performance this year is under pressure.
In the first three quarters of 2022, the company achieved revenue of 526 million yuan (year-on-year-35.46%) and net profit of 129 million yuan (year-on-year-30.37%). In the third quarter, the company achieved revenue of 166 million yuan (year-on-year-11.62%), net profit of 40 million yuan (year-on-year-17.10%), and non-net profit of 39 million yuan (year-on-year-15.40%).
The gross profit margin of product structure optimization has increased, and the expense rate has increased slightly. 2022Q3 achieved a sales expense rate of 0.76%, almost the same as the same period last year, management expense rate of 4.38%, year-on-year increase of 3.71pcts, R & D expense rate of 3.63%, year-on-year + 1.56pcts, despite the adverse impact of rising costs, the company is still increasing its R & D. In the first three quarters, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 33.22% (year-on-year + 0.41pct) and a net profit margin of 24.53% (year-on-year + 1.79pct). Q3 achieved a gross profit margin of 34.75% (year-on-year + 0.74pct) and a net profit margin of 23.95% (year-on-year-1.58pct).
The natural nursing production line opens the imagination space, the equity incentive boosts the confidence 1) the order quantity shows the steady growth trend, the natural care production line opens the imagination space. The company maintains a stable cooperative relationship with major customers and, on the premise of meeting the order needs of existing customers, seize market opportunities and actively develop new customers. The company's existing annual output of 3000 tons of natural care production line is in the climbing period, actively cut into the new track to open up the space for follow-up growth. 2) Equity incentive boosts confidence. Q3 company announced that it intends to grant 1.784 million restricted shares to 56 targets, accounting for 2.20% of the total share capital of the company on the announcement date, with a grant price of 19.49 yuan per share. The incentive plan aims for revenue growth of 10 per cent, 18 per cent, 15 per cent, respectively, from 2023 to 2025. Under the equity incentive scheme, the members of the company are expected to be fully motivated to promote the growth of the company's performance.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company is a leading manufacturer of wet wipes. We expect the company to achieve an income of 7.03 shock 8.30 / 1.035 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, a year-on-year increase of-28.57%, 17.97%, 24.76%, and a year-on-year growth rate of-23.26%, 14.17%, 18.90%, and 1.59amp, 1.81, 2.15 yuan per share, respectively. The corresponding PE is 21-18-15 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint
Market demand fluctuation, high customer concentration, raw material price fluctuation, import and export policy and so on.