The promotion of production is expected to lead to a pick-up in the company's revenue growth.
22Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 926 million yuan, a decrease of 16.6%; net profit of-45 million yuan, compared with 40 million yuan in the same period last year; and non-return net profit of-48 million yuan, compared with 36 million yuan in the same period last year.
The revenue of 22Q1/Q2/Q3 company changed respectively from the same period last year-21.93%, 14.24%, 13.58%. The decline in revenue from the same period last year was mainly affected by the international situation, and the revenue from the company's overseas digital painting business decreased compared with the same period last year. We believe that as the company continues to introduce new products, product power continues to upgrade, revenue growth is expected to gradually return to positive. Considering the influence of the uncertainty of overseas macro environment on demand and the rigidity of short-term expenses, the income forecast is lowered and the expense rate forecast is raised. It is estimated that the company's income from 2022 to 2024 is 14.17,18.52,2.146 billion yuan (the previous value is 15.75,18.73,2.17 billion yuan), and the EPS is 0.07,0.37,0.44 yuan (the previous value is 0.33,0.39,0.46 yuan). Comparable company average 23e 47.4xPE (Wind), give 23e 47.4xPE, target price 17.54 yuan (previous value 18.45 yuan), "buy".
With heavy R & D investment, a rich product matrix is gradually formed.
The gross profit margin / net profit rate of 22Q1-Q3 is 42.9% / 6.6% respectively, and the year-on-year change is-8.6% / 14.3 pct. The net profit rate goes down more than the gross margin. The main reason is that the expense rate during the period is higher than the same period last year: the sales / management / R & D expense rate of 22Q1-Q3 is 27.6%, 10.4% and 14.4%, respectively, with a year-on-year change of 1.9 pct, 2.04.2 pct. Among them, the rate of R & D expenses increased significantly, mainly due to the company's increased efforts in new product research and development, and R & D expenses increased by 17.9% compared with the same period last year. We believe that as the company continues to carry out intensive research and development and the product line continues to expand, it has gradually formed a rich product matrix with AI+ text recognition ability as the core and covering a variety of intelligent terminals.
The continuous introduction of consumer-grade new products may lead to a gradual return to revenue growth. In May 2022, the company released handwritten paper book N10 mini, which is a smaller handwritten paper book in October. Electric paper products continue to iterate to fully meet different market segments. In addition, 22Q3 has launched e-pen S3, PM1301 ink screen display and other new products, the consumption scene continues to expand. We believe that as the company continues to promote production, consumer-grade new products emerge one after another, the future market space is expected to further improve, or will lead to a gradual return to revenue growth.
In the context of the digital economy, it is believed that the scale of China's digital economy will reach 39.2 trillion yuan in 2020. During the 14th five-year Plan period, China's digital economy will continue to expand and is expected to maintain an average annual growth rate of about 9%. It is believed that the market size will exceed 60 trillion yuan in 2025. We believe that with artificial intelligence technology + products + services as the core, the company will continue to promote the commercial application of AI+ text in the fields of intelligent politics and law, smart medical care, intelligent finance, digital humanities, and intelligent education, and achieve the landing of solutions such as AI electronic files, file identification and analysis system, and intelligent library, which is expected to fully benefit from digital China and digital economy construction.
Risk hint: downstream demand is lower than expected and production progress is lower than expected.