Events:
The company released the third quarter report of 2022.
Comments:
Performance pressure caused by epidemic shock and seasonal impact
2022Q1-3 achieved operating income of 2.098 billion yuan, down 16.10% from the same period last year; net loss of 39 million yuan, down 114.80% from the same period last year; and net loss of 58 million yuan, down 128.56% from the same period last year. Of this total, Q3 achieved revenue of 541 million yuan in a single quarter, down 16.15% from the same period last year, and the net profit returned to its mother was-45 million yuan, down 179.80% from the same period last year. The gross margin / net profit rate of 2022Q1-3 was 28.88% / net profit rate 1.95%, down 13.74% / 12.38pct; of which Q3 single-quarter gross profit margin / net profit rate was 25.17% / net profit rate 8.6%, respectively, down 20.48/17.28pct. On the expense side, the sales / management / R & D expense rate is 24.28%, 4.65% and 0.46%, respectively, compared with the same period last year-2.39/+1.43/+0.03pct. The decline in gross profit margin is due to weak demand for cosmetics and increased sales discounts.
Private brand + strategic cooperation progresses steadily
In terms of business, the revenue of 2022Q1-3 e-commerce retail / brand marketing operation / other business is RMB 1.912 million, compared with the same period last year.-17.25%, 48.14%, 109.69%, 29.64%, 49.17, 4.12% and-5.56/-33.03/+5.48pct respectively. The company continues to incubate its own brands and actively opens strategic cooperation with Koty and other high-end cosmetics brands to achieve rapid revenue growth.
Tmall, the main force, expands the platform, and the management is improving steadily.
From a platform-by-platform point of view, the revenue of 2022Q1-3 Tmall domestic / Tmall International / other platforms is RMB 1.796 million, down 4.97%, 24.68% and 26.33% respectively, with a gross profit margin of 29.34%, 25.63% and 26.33%, respectively. Q3 single-quarter revenue from Tmall domestic / Tmall International / other platforms was RMB 425Universe 0.15Universe, year-on-year-19.75% Universe 47.84% Universe 16.31%, gross profit 25.31% Universe 26.11% Universe 24.42%, respectively-16.80/-11.63/+7.14pct. The company Q3 in the single quarter to Douyin-based other platforms revenue gross profit margin improved, 12 new platform stores, the main Tmall and continue to expand emerging platforms.
Investment advice and profit Forecast
We estimate that in 2022-2024, the company will achieve an operating income of 43.12 pounds, net profit of 1.93 million, 0.82 and 0.86 respectively, and net profit of 1.93, 0.31 and 0.86, respectively, and a "overweight" rating corresponding to PE of 25, 15,14x.
Risk hint
The main brand takes back the risk of acting operation right, the incubation of new brand is less than the expected risk, and the industry competition aggravates the risk.