Overview of events
Qumei Home Appliances released its quarterly report for the third quarter of 2022: in the first three quarters of 2022, the company's realized income / return net profit / deduction of non-return net profit was 37.50max 1.60 / 124 million yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year. + 0.21% Universe 11.62% Grammer 24.01% Among them, the Q3 company realized income / return net profit / deducted non-return net profit of 1.214 million yuan, 0.35 billion yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year. In the first three quarters, faced with the spread of the domestic epidemic, overseas US dollar interest rate increases and global liquidity tightening, raw materials and transportation costs have increased, while profits have declined compared with the same period last year. In terms of cash flow, the net cash flow generated by the company's operating activities in the first three quarters of 2022 was 300 million yuan, an increase of 47.37% over the same period last year, mainly due to the reduction in expenditure on purchasing raw materials and purchased goods in the current period.
Analysis and judgment:
A number of factors led to a year-on-year decline in Q3 revenue in the first three quarters of 2022, and the company actively responded to the company's revenue of 3.75 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2022, + 0.21% year-on-year. Among them, Q3 achieved revenue of 1.214 billion yuan in a single quarter, and Q3 revenue in a single quarter declined slightly compared with the same period last year, which is expected to be caused by the impact of the environment and the epidemic on the company's major markets. In terms of domestic headquarters business, the company takes the initiative to optimize the channel business of dealers and encourages new and small businesses to take the initiative to simplify their business models to improve their survival and profitability. Big and strong businessmen continue to give full play to the advantages of the "big shop + full-product one-stop" business model, increase the customer order value and joint rate, and increase the proportion of "full-product one-stop" orders. Direct business is growing against the trend, and newly signed orders for innovative business are growing rapidly. In terms of overseas Ekornes business, it still performs well under pressure in the general environment. The company has generally raised prices by 6-8% in Q2 to effectively hedge against the rise in raw materials, comfort chair products continue to improve and same-store sales grow steadily, soft sofas, electric chairs, soft-bag dining chairs and other products expand rapidly and channel penetration continues to increase, and domestic business still grows rapidly under the impact of the epidemic in major markets. At the same time, the company will seize the opportunity to seize high-quality stores and high-quality lots to speed up the layout of domestic channels.
Profit side: Q3 single-quarter gross profit margin improved compared with the previous quarter, during which the expense rate continued to optimize. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company's gross profit margin was 34.26%, a year-on-year decline in 7.73pct, of which Q3 single-quarter gross profit margin was 34.30%, a year-on-year decline in 8.98pct, and a month-on-month increase in 1.51pct. The year-on-year decline in gross profit margin is expected to be due to the high impact of raw materials and sea freight charges. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company's net interest rate was 4.29%, a year-on-year decline of 1.03pct, of which Q3 single-quarter net interest rate was 2.86%, a year-on-year decline of 1.69pct. The decrease in net profit rate was less than that of gross profit rate optimization. 2022Q1-3 company's period expense rate was 29.37%, year-on-year-5.96pct, of which Sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates are 16.81% 7.67% 1.98% 2.92% respectively, year-on-year-5.90/+0.98/+0.04/-1.08pct, investment advice
Qumei is undergoing positive changes, the performance is gradually released, and Hillhouse Investment has been introduced as a strategic investor, which is expected to accelerate the development of overseas Ekornes in the domestic market and other aspects to help the company develop rapidly. Taking into account the short-term epidemic situation and the impact of high raw material prices and transportation costs, we adjusted our previous profit forecast. In 2022-2024, the company's operating income was adjusted from 56.80, 6702, 000, 000, The corresponding PE is 16 times, 12 times and 9 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The risk of continuous rise in raw material prices; the risk of continuous tension in shipping; the risk of lower-than-expected real estate sales; the risk of intensified competition in the industry; the impact of short-term epidemic.