2022Q3 trichlorosilicon prices fell, performance pressure, optimistic about the differential layout, maintain the "buy" rating on October 27, 2022, the company released the third-quarter report, 2022Q3 achieved operating income of 395 million yuan, an increase of 29.71% over the same period last year; return to the mother net profit of 80.4674 million yuan, an increase of 207.52%. The price and price spread of Q3 trichlorosilicon have fallen, resulting in a narrowing of performance compared with the previous month. Combined with the price and price difference of trichlorosilane, we downgrade the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.33 (- 0.88,5.64) and 739 (- 430) million yuan, respectively, and the EPS will be 0.99,1.29,1.69 (- 0.99) yuan per share, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to the PE of 16.4,12.6,9.6 times in 2022-2024 respectively. The differentiated layout of the company's electronic-grade silane and high-purity silicon tetrachloride high-quality track will drive performance growth and maintain the "buy" rating.
The price difference of 2022Q3 trichlorosilicon narrowed month-on-month, and the company's performance declined month-on-month. 2022Q3's revenue was-15.49% month-on-month, and its net profit was-31.58%. According to the announcement of the company's operating data, we calculate that the selling prices of HP669, HP1589, HP669 and gaseous silica of 2022Q3 Company are 3.27,4.49,1.95,247,000 yuan per ton respectively (excluding tax), which are-0.29,0.06,- 0.17,- 4700 yuan per ton respectively compared with 2022Q2. According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, the average price of 2022Q3 ordinary grade and photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon is 14000 yuan / ton and 212,000 yuan / ton, respectively, down 31.53% and 19.64% from the previous month. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, we calculated that the price difference between 2022Q3 ordinary grade and photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane is 0.910 million yuan / ton and 1640 million yuan / ton, respectively, down 41.51% and 24.24% respectively. Dragged down by the narrowing of the price difference of trichlorosilane, 2022Q3's performance declined month-on-month, and the company's sales gross profit margin fell from 37.21% of 2022Q2 to 33.01% of 2022Q3.
We believe that the intensive production of polysilicon projects under construction in the future may boost the scene of trichlorosilane.
The company's second set of 50, 000-ton trichlorosilicon project is progressing smoothly, and the layout of photovoltaic and electronic race is smooth, according to the company announcement, the company's second set of 50, 000-ton trichlorosilicon device is being debugged, and photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon products are being verified by customers. In addition, the company plans to accelerate the expansion of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon, and plan new high value-added silicon-based materials such as high-purity silicon tetrachloride and electronic-grade high-purity alkoxysilane. On October 14, 2022, the company announced that it plans to invest 5.2 billion yuan to build about 26 green new material production lines in Ruichang City, planning to produce photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon, high purity silicon tetrachloride, electronic grade high purity alkoxysilane and other products. The company has broad room for growth in the future.
Risk tips: capacity release is not as expected, product prices have fallen sharply, and downstream demand is flagging.