Investment points:
Event: The company announced its results for the third quarter of 2022, in line with expectations. 1) The first three quarters of 2022 achieved revenue of 6.32 billion yuan (yoy +36.2%), net profit of 5.2 billion yuan (yoy +41.9%), net profit of non-attributable income of 5.1 billion yuan (yoy +45.0%). 2) 2022Q3 achieved revenue of 2.23 billion yuan (yoy +45.0%, qoq +5.3%), net profit of 210 million yuan (yoy +67.8%, qoq +1.4%), net profit of 210 million yuan after deducting non-return net profit of 210 million yuan (yoy +71.5%, qoq +1.0%).
The production capacity of Chongqing Phase II will be increased by 150,000 tons (for new energy vehicles), and the total production capacity is expected to increase to 580,000 tons after delivery.
1) The fixed capital increase is to be invested in a high-end aluminum sheet and foil project with an annual output of 150,000 tons for new energy vehicles (total investment of 1.98 billion yuan). The construction period is 36 months. At present, the company's total production capacity of aluminum sheet and foil is 340,000 tons (200,000 tons in Chongqing, 140,000 tons in Shanghai). Technical reforms increased 90,000 tons in 23 years. It is estimated that the company's total production capacity will increase to 580,000 tons after the second phase of delivery in Chongqing.
2) Details of the 150,000-ton project design and production capacity of Chongqing Phase II: 45,000 tons of water-cooled aluminum plate, 33,500 tons of rectangular/square battery case, 40,000 tons of strip battery strip, 30,000 tons of battery foil, 50,000 tons of aluminum foil for aluminum-plastic film for soft-pack batteries, and 23,500 tons of composite brazed aluminum strip.
Focusing on aluminum heat transfer materials and battery materials for automobiles, Chongqing's production capacity is gradually being released to open up room for growth. 1) Rapid production growth: After Chongqing Phase II's production capacity of 150,000 tons was fully put into operation, the total production capacity increased to 580,000 tons. 2) Cost reduction: Chongqing has lower energy costs and higher yield than the Shanghai base, and there is room for the company's tonnes of processing costs to decline.
The company is a leader in automotive thermal management aluminum and maintains purchase ratings. The company is a leader in automotive thermal management aluminum. It has production capacity and customer advantages. After the Chongqing base is fully put into operation, production capacity was released, shipping space was opened up, product structure optimization improved profitability, and promoted rapid growth in performance. Maintaining the original profit forecast, the company's net profit from parent is estimated to be 73/10.0/1.25 billion yuan in 22-24, corresponding to a PE of 20/15/12 times, maintaining the purchase rating.
Risk warning: Product processing costs have declined; capacity construction falls short of expectations; international trade friction; the epidemic has repeatedly affected daily production and operation