Event: on October 27, the company released its third quarterly report of 2022. 2022Q3 realized operating income of 52. 5%.
7.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.74% over the same period last year, realizing a net profit of 1.009 billion yuan for shareholders belonging to the parent company, a decrease of 61. 5% over the same period last year.
62%, realizing the deduction of 1.014 billion yuan in non-return net profit, a decrease of 61.1% over the same period last year.
Comments:
Both volume and price declined, and Q3 performance was under pressure. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company realized operating income of 18.275 billion yuan, + 29.09% compared with the same period last year, and net profit of 4.554 billion yuan,-9.17% of the same period last year. Among them, 2022Q3 income is 5.275 billion yuan,-17.74% year-on-year, month-on-month-20.19%; net profit is 1.009 billion yuan, year-on-year-61.62%, month-on-month-32.42%. The main reason is that 2022Q3 is affected by changes in industry supply and demand and macro-economy, the price of the company's main products has dropped sharply, the sales volume of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of organosilicon has dropped. 2022Q3 sold 115400 tons of industrial silicon,-28. 5% year-on-year.
60%; average price 16572 yuan / ton, year-on-year + 2.59%, month-on-month ratio-1.83%; silicone product sales of 161000 tons, + 45.90% compared with the same period last year. Among them, the sales volume of 110 raw rubber, 107 rubber, mixed rubber, cyclic siloxane and gaseous silica were + 34.74%, + 18.19%, + 60.01%, + 157.67% and + 58.24%, respectively. The average price is 17794 yuan / ton, 17959 yuan / ton, 18454 yuan / ton, 18324 yuan / ton, 23894 yuan / ton, respectively, compared with the same period last year-47.66%,-40.32%,-34.18%,-38.05%, + 36.51%, month-on-month ratio of-15.54%,-19.88%,-13.19%,-23.01%, + 10.44%, respectively. In addition, the company's R & D expenditure in the first three quarters was 1.124 billion yuan, + 309.33% compared with the same period last year, due to the fact that the company paid more attention to industrial basic research.
Quality improvement and increment contribute to sustainable development. The company is one of the enterprises with the most complete business chain and largest production scale in the silicon-based materials industry. At present, the company's industrial silicon production capacity is 790,000 tons / year, and organic silicon monomer production capacity is 1.33 million tons / year. In terms of projects under construction, industrial silicon: eastern Hesheng Coal Power Silicon Integration Project Phase II 400,000 tons / year Industrial Silicon Project, Yunnan Hesheng Hydropower Silicon Circular economy Project Phase I 800,000 tons / year Industrial Silicon production and matching 600,000 tons Briquette processing Project is being promoted. Silicone: Xinjiang silicon industry new material coal-electricity-silicon integration project with an annual output of 200000 tons of siloxane and downstream deep processing project has been in the trial production stage, the third phase of annual production of 200000 tons of siloxane and downstream deep processing project is being carried out in an orderly manner. In addition, in terms of polysilicon, central Xinjiang Hesheng silicon-based new materials industry integration 200000 tons of polysilicon projects and other simultaneous construction.
The company announced on October 25 that the Nanxiang R & D and Manufacturing Center of Hesheng Silicon Industry (Shanghai) has settled in Jiading, Shanghai, and will focus on R & D of the third generation semiconductor silicon carbide crystal technology and high-end silicone materials based on the company's own technology. achieve achievement transformation through research and development, assembly, manufacturing and other ways to promote the development of silicon carbide wafers and silicone industry.
After completion, the annual output value is expected to reach nearly 1 billion yuan. On the one hand, the company tamps the industrial foundation and promotes projects under construction; on the other hand, it increases investment in scientific research and is expected to achieve "incremental" and "quality improvement" double breakthroughs, and the future development space is worth looking forward to.
Profit forecast and investment advice: we have adjusted the company's profit forecast based on changes in price and sales assumptions. It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.1 billion yuan, 8.6 billion yuan and 10.8 billion yuan respectively (the original value is 94,100,10.2 billion yuan), corresponding to 19,13,11 times of PE respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: downstream demand is less than expected risk; new projects are less than expected risk.