Event: the company released its three-quarter report in 2022, with operating income of 1.377 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 5.07% over the same period last year; net profit of 19.54 million yuan, down 91.10% from the same period last year; and non-net profit of 4.39 million yuan, down 98.04% from the same period last year.
The rise in the price of raw materials affects performance and waits for the inflection point. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company's revenue side continued to grow under the influence of the epidemic, and the profit side fluctuation was mainly affected by the increase in iodine prices of upstream raw materials. Quarterly, 22Q3 realized operating income of 435 million yuan (year-on-year-4.60%, the same below), net profit of-44.54 million yuan (- 169.76%), deduction of non-net profit of-47.34 million yuan (- 178.01%), gross profit margin of 18.62% (- 16.63pp). Looking forward to Q4 and next year, on the one hand, with the easing of the epidemic, the company's preparation production and shipments are expected to continue to recover, while the new increment of preparation collection (iodopamol) and API key customers cooperate to drive growth; on the other hand, the current high iodine price is running, and with the follow-up of the supply side of major upstream suppliers gradually recovering, it is expected to see the gradual decline of iodine price, waiting for the inflection point.
Expense rate: the gross profit margin fluctuates under the influence of cost, the expense rate increases, and R & D investment continues to grow. Gross profit margin: the first three quarters of 2022, 22Q3 gross profit margin 25.91% (- 14.24pp), 18.62% (- 16.63pp), gross profit margin fluctuation is mainly affected by raw material prices, preparation collection prices and other factors. Expense rate: in the first three quarters of 2022, the 22Q3 sales expense rate was 4.11% (+ 3.28pp) and 4.85% (4.14pp), the management expense rate was 7.72% (+ 0.38pp) and 8.26% (+ 2.32pp), and the financial expense rate was 7.19% (+ 2.83pp) and 9.53% (4.38pp), totaling 19.02% (+ 6.
49pp), 22.64% (+ 10.84pp). The increase in sales expense rate is mainly due to the development of preparation business in Shanghai, supplement the sales team and marketing, and the increase in financial expense rate is mainly due to the increase in exchange loss caused by exchange rate fluctuations. R & D expenses: in the first three quarters of 2022, 22Q3 R & D expenses were 95.47 million yuan (+ 17.05%) and 33.7 million yuan (+ 18.05%), accounting for 6.93% (+ 0.71pp) and 7.75% (+ 1.48pp) of income.
Contrast agent API leading strong Hengqiang, and global manufacturers continue to carry out in-depth cooperation, continuous efforts are worth looking forward to. We believe that under the background of the continuous strengthening of contrast agent API barriers and preparation collection, it is expected that it will be difficult for new entrants to develop on a large scale. As a leading global contrast agent API company, Si Taili will maintain a strong position. With its strong advantage, the company is expected to deepen its cooperation with major original research and imitation pharmaceutical manufacturers at home and abroad, continue to expand the volume of contrast media business, and maintain rapid growth in performance.
Profit forecast and investment advice: according to the three-quarter report, considering the impact of rising prices of raw materials and the continued increase in R & D investment, we adjust our profit forecast and estimate that the company will have an income of 20.27,24.68 and 3.161 billion yuan (before adjustment, 22.70,27.37 and 3.314 billion yuan) in 2022-2024. year-on-year growth of 1.4%, 21.8% and 28.1% The net profit of homing was-0.18,2.03 and 407 million yuan (before the adjustment was 3.28,4.57 and 641 million yuan), up-105.6%, 1226.2% and 100.6% over the same period last year. The current stock price corresponds to the 2022-2024 PE of-348-31-15 times. Considering that the company is in the contrast medium industry with rapid demand development and good competition, superimposing its own capacity release and preparation, and the sustained and rapid growth of CDMO harvest, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk prompt events: environmental protection risk; quality risk; risk of order loss caused by competition with customers; risk of rising raw material prices; risk that the progress of product approval is lower than expected; the risk that public information lags behind or is not updated in a timely manner.