Event: the company announced that in the first three quarters, the operating income reached 4.281 billion yuan, an increase of + 5.08% over the same period last year; the net profit of return to the mother was 163 million yuan, an increase of + 631.68% over the same period last year; and the net profit of non-return was 158 million yuan, an increase of + 867.28% over the same period last year. Among them, Q3 achieved a net profit of 42 million in a single quarter, an increase of + 941.16% over the same period last year, and a month-on-month decrease of-37%.
The quarter-on-quarter decline in the third quarter was mainly disturbed by aluminum prices and the traditional off-season of packaging foil:
(1) there is a small inventory exposure and the decline in aluminum ingot prices in the third quarter has been hurt. The company's settlement model is priced at the price of aluminum ingots at the time of delivery. as the company has three major production bases of aluminum foil + aluminum billet (120000 tons of aluminum foil production capacity and 110000 tons of aluminum billet production capacity), each base has inventory and stock, and aluminum prices fell unilaterally in the third quarter. Profits have been eroded.
(2) the price difference between Lun aluminum and Shanghai aluminum is upside down, and the export profit is damaged. The company's annual export volume of packaging foil is more than 40,000 tons, and the export products are priced at Lun aluminum price. In part of the third quarter, Lun Aluminum and Shanghai Aluminum were upside down, resulting in a loss of profits, which has now returned to the positive position in the fourth quarter.
(3) the traditional off-season disturbance of packaging foil. The third quarter is the traditional off-season of packaging foil, the average price of processing fees is about 13000, entering the fourth quarter has entered the traditional peak season, prices are expected to rebound.
Battery aluminum foil certification went smoothly, sales increased month-on-month. As the leader of high-end packaging aluminum foil, the company began to expand the production of battery aluminum foil in 2018, and has significant advantages in high-end imported equipment and production experience. 40,000 tons of battery foil in the first phase has climbed to full production. During the reporting period, Anhui Zhongji, with battery aluminum foil as its main product, sold 20800 tons, of which Q3 sold 8300 tons, an increase of + 13.7% over the previous month. At present, the company's battery aluminum foil direct supply customers have included Ningde era, Polyfluoro, Xinwanda and other well-known battery production enterprises, the follow-up performance is more flexible.
High resistance diaphragm products have been used in photovoltaic, packaging, quantum dot display and other fields. Among them, the high resistance diaphragm developed by the company for portable photovoltaic products has begun to supply downstream photovoltaic panel manufacturers; in addition, in order to meet the packaging material requirements of the global green low-carbon cycle development trend, the company developed a recyclable single material (PP), cooking resistance transparent high resistance diaphragm began to supply customers.
Maintain the "highly recommended" investment rating. Battery aluminum foil supply continues to outstrip demand, the industry has begun to Ningde, BYD and other major customers processing fee increases, is one of the few battery materials for this year's rising processing fees.
It is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the company will achieve a net profit of 2.2,3.6 and 420 million yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 31,19,16 times, and maintain a "highly recommended" investment rating.
Risk hints: lower-than-expected demand for new energy vehicles, downward processing fees, macroeconomic risks, and so on.