Core ideas:
Event: the company reported that in the first three quarters of 2002, the operating income was 5.368 billion yuan, + 10.35% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit was 115 million yuan, + 7.47%, and 108 million yuan, + 6.12%, respectively. 22Q3 realized operating income of 1.691 billion yuan, year-on-year-4.31%, month-on-month-13.34%, and net profit of 40 million yuan,-15.73%, and-19.06%, respectively.
Calendering copper foil continues to climb production, product structure has been optimized. According to the company's main operating data of Q3 and Q1-2, 22Q3 achieved an output of 28800 tons of copper strip + copper foil, with a month-on-month ratio of + 1.11%, of which 828 tons of copper foil were produced; sales of copper plate, strip and foil were 28800 tons, with a month-on-month ratio of-0.43%, and 801 tons of copper foil were sold. Q3 copper production and sales are stable month-on-month, but the internal structure has been optimized. Calendering copper foil production and sales in a single quarter is higher than the average quarterly production and sales in the first half of the year, and the proportion of copper foil products has increased. According to Wind, Q3 gross profit margin is 4.3%, month-on-month decline of 0.14pp, net profit rate of 2.30%, month-on-month decline of 0.16pp. During the Q3 period of the company, the expense rate is 1.81%, chain ratio + 0.56pp, in which sales expense rate is 0.25%, chain ratio-0.04pp, management expense rate is 0.45%, chain ratio + 0.06pp, financial expense rate is-0.1%, chain ratio + 0.05pp, R & D expense rate is 1.21%, chain ratio + 0.49pp. According to the company's semi-annual report, it is proposed to expand the annual production capacity of battery packs and energy storage pallets for new energy vehicles to 500000 pieces in July 2022. The construction of the first phase of the battery foil project with an annual output of 25000 tons is being actively promoted.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the company's revenue from 22 to 24 is expected to be 7.106 billion yuan respectively. The net profit of 8.341 billion yuan and 12.59 billion yuan is 163 million yuan, 325 million yuan and 595 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.67.1.33 yuan and 2.44 yuan per share respectively. Maintain the company's fair value of 22.88 yuan per share, corresponding to the 23-year PE valuation level of about 17 times, maintain the company's "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the expansion of copper plate, strip and foil project is not as expected; the expansion of battery tray project is not as expected or the downstream demand is weak; the gross profit of single battery tray is not as expected.
