Comments on Q3 performance in 2022:
According to the company announcement, Q3 achieved revenue of 508 million yuan in 2022, + 257.29% year-on-year, net profit of 5.15 million yuan, + 1629.79%, and deduction of non-return net profit of-5.52 million yuan, year-on-year-70.27%. This year, Q1-3 achieved 1.377 billion yuan in revenue, + 202.53% year-on-year, and 33 million yuan in net profit, + 91.40% in the same period last year.
Q3 revenue increased sharply compared with the same period last year, and the month-on-month growth rate was under pressure. In 2022, Q3 achieved revenue of 508 million yuan, + 257.29% year-on-year, down 1.6% from the previous month. From January to September this year, 4.34 million new energy passenger vehicles were wholesale, + 117% compared with the same period last year. The high penetration rate of new energy vehicles has led to the rapid growth of the electric drive system industry. With the release of major customer models such as Geely, Wuling, Hezhong and Chery, the company's revenue performance is bright year-on-year; Q3 is 1.6% lower than Q2, and the performance growth rate shows some pressure in the short term, and it is expected that the sales growth of key models mainly downstream has slowed down.
Affected by the increase in the proportion of high-priced raw material inventory and low gross margin business, the company's gross profit margin declined. The company's Q3 gross profit margin was 11.36%, down 12.25% from the same period last year and 2% month-on-month. Before 2022, the overall gross profit margin of the Q3 company was 13.34%, down 7.95% from the same period last year. The decline in gross profit margin is mainly due to two reasons: 1) raw material inventory contains large quantities of raw materials and IGBT purchased at high prices, which are carried forward into costs in the second half of the year; 2) the company's electric drive assembly business share has increased, and the electric drive system industry is still in a competitive era of low gross margin, mainly to increase market share and customer expansion.
It is determined to increase production and lay a capacity foundation for performance growth and major customer breakthroughs. In the first half of this year, the company raised 976 million yuan to expand Zhuhai and Heze electric drive production base and build new electric drive assembly and power assembly production base. The company has obtained the fixed points of SAIC GM Wuling hybrid dual motor controller assembly and SAIC Chase "integrated core" six-in-one drive assembly, and is expected to be mass-produced and delivered in the second half of this year. As the leading supplier of electric drive assembly and power assembly in China, the company is looking forward to the fixed-point volume on the core models of downstream major customers.
Profit forecast and rating: the company's revenue in 2022-2024 is estimated to be 100 million yuan on 21-37-56, the net profit of return to the mother is 0.65 billion yuan, the net profit is 1.98 million yuan, and the EPS is 0.39 billion yuan, which is 2.38 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 105-35-17 times. Coverage for the first time, giving a "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: downstream customer expansion is not as expected, IGBT and other upstream raw materials price risk
