Core ideas:
In the first three quarters of 22 years, the net profit of non-return was-24.6% compared with the same period last year. In the first three quarters of 22 years, the company achieved revenue of 10.09 billion yuan, 73.8% of the 21-year revenue,-18.4% compared with the same period last year, deducted 1.62 billion yuan of non-return net profit, and completed 21-year deduction of 63.6% of non-return net profit,-24.6% of the same period last year.
Q3 realized revenue and deducted non-return net profit of 2.77 billion yuan, 21.5% and 32.6% respectively, compared with the same period last year. According to the China Automobile Association. In the first three quarters of 22, the wholesale sales of commercial vehicles were-34.0% compared with the same period last year. The company's revenue and performance were better than those of the industry, and its stability was good.
The proportion of proprietary profit to operating profit decreased month-on-month. The net investment income of 22Q3 is 360 million yuan, accounting for 103.3% of the operating profit and-2.3% compared with the previous month. 22Q3 realized its own profit (operating profit-net investment income from changes in fair value) of 90 million yuan,-64.2% month-on-month, accounting for 24.6% of operating profit and-17.6 pct.
The company still has plenty of money. At the end of 22Q3, monetary funds + notes receivable + accounts receivable financing + other current assets + transactional financial assets totaled 6.91 billion yuan,-14.2% compared with the previous month, but it was still abundant. The short-term loan at the end of 22Q3 was 3.93 billion yuan, + 231.8% from the same period last year and-6.0% from the previous year. The year-on-year increase was mainly due to the increase in borrowing in the platform trade business. At the end of 22Q3, the asset-liability ratio of the company is 37.4%, the total invested capital of interest-bearing debt 1 is 17.3%, and the long-term capital-liability ratio is only 3.2%.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the company has high product barriers, sound operation, and the stability of profits and dividends can be expected. the equity incentive plan will fully mobilize the enthusiasm of the company's senior management and core personnel and make it more consistent with the interests of shareholders. Taking into account the overall modest recovery of the commercial vehicle industry and the company's earnings stability, we maintain the view that the company has long-term earnings stability. We estimate that the EPS of the company from 22 to 24 years is 2.36 PE 2.68 RMB 3.02 yuan per share, and the current stock price is 7.49 Universe 6.60 Universe 5.84 times. Combined with the historical valuation of the company and the PE valuation center of the international parts company in recent years, we give the company 15 times PE in 22 years, with a reasonable value of 35.33 yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the epidemic situation is repeated, the macro-economy is not as expected, and the downstream prosperity is lower than expected.
