Events:
The company released the third quarterly report of 2022: the operating income in the first three quarters of 2022 was 849 million yuan, down 2.02% from the same period last year; the return net profit was 15 million yuan, down 78.73% from the same period last year; and the non-return net profit was 8.7552 million yuan, down 87.01% from the same period last year. In the third quarter of 2022, the operating income was 273 million yuan, up 15.52 percent over the same period last year; the net profit returned to the mother was 14 million yuan, up 581.37 percent over the same period last year; and the non-return net profit was 12 million yuan, an increase of 312.78 percent over the same period last year.
Guoyuan point of view:
Focusing on the market of adult incontinence products, the strategic transformation has been fruitful.
On a quarterly basis, 22Q1-3 achieved revenue of 2.54 million yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year change of-3.34%, 14.47% and 15.52%, respectively, and a net profit of 195.75, 140.25and 142.59 million, respectively, and a year-on-year change of-95.14%, 105.17% and 581.37%, respectively. The company will gradually shift the focus of development to the market for adult incontinence products, the strategic direction will be transformed from manufacturing enterprises to brand enterprises, and through a series of measures such as brand detonation in cooperation with Huayuhua Company, brand image will be upgraded and brand value will be improved. continue to occupy the minds of consumers. In the case of maintaining the online market share, the company deeply focuses on the channel investment in the offline key provinces, optimizes the channel structure, and continues to increase the market share.
The rise in raw material prices led to a decline in gross profit margin compared to the same period last year. In terms of profitability, 2022Q3's gross profit margin / return net profit rate was 12.92% / 5.21%, respectively, compared with 2021Q3 year-on-year-6.26/+4.32pcts and 2022Q2 + 0.59/+5.76pcts, respectively. The year-on-year decline in gross profit margin is mainly due to the increase in the price of core raw materials such as wood pulp over the same period last year. The increase in the net interest rate of homing is mainly due to the proper control of various expense rates. In terms of expense rate, 2022Q3's sales expense rate, management expense rate, R & D expense rate and financial expense rate are 7.60% 2.58% 4.70% 6.57%, respectively, compared with the same period last year-3.31/-3.32/-0.51/-3.48pcts. The financial expenses were-39 million yuan, down 546.16% from the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in exchange gains and losses and interest income in the current period.
Participate in the establishment of the elderly industry investment fund, layout the elderly consumption industry extension development opportunities company deliberated and passed the "motion on investment industry funds and related transactions", participate in the establishment of the elderly industry investment fund, actively explore the elderly industry chain, look for extension development opportunities in line with the national development strategy and related to the company's main business, and cultivate new growth points for the company's business. Produce synergy with the main business to further enhance the company's core competitiveness.
Investment advice and profit Forecast
There is still much room for improvement in the penetration rate of adult incontinence products, and the company, as the industry leader, will benefit from the sales growth of its own brands dominated by adult care products. We estimate that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.549 billion yuan, net profit 0.21 million, 0.95 million, 0.08, 0.33 and 0.56 yuan per share, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be times that of 136-32-19, taking into account the short-term pressure on performance and the uncertainty of the elimination time of external factors to maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint
Market competition risk, baby birth rate decline risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, exchange rate risk.
