What happened: the company recently released its three-quarter report for 2022, with a monthly income of 5.2 billion yuan,-9.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 850 million yuan,-46.8%, from the same period last year. 22Q3 income 1.6 billion yuan, year-on-year-22.8%; return to the mother net profit 140 million yuan, year-on-year-76.0%; deduction of non-return net profit 270 million yuan, year-on-year-45.6%.
Comments:
Industry demand is under pressure, cement profits are falling, and floating losses on securities investment are a further drag on performance. Affected by the frequent domestic epidemic and national real estate regulation and control policies in the first three quarters of 2022, the growth rate of national real estate development investment continued to decline, and the recovery of cement demand was relatively slow. From January to September in 2022, the output of the national cement industry was-12.5% compared with the same period last year. The company's cement clinker sales in January and September were-9.6% compared with the same period last year (single third quarter compared with the same period last year-2.5%), which was better than the national average. Since the third quarter, with the strengthening of off-peak production around the country, the landing process of infrastructure has been accelerated, and cement prices have rebounded slightly.
Affected by the decline in the average price of cement and the rise in coal costs compared with the same period last year, the gross profit per ton of 22Q3 cement is-44 yuan year-on-year to 100 yuan. The company's 22Q3 ton fee is + 14 yuan to 43 yuan compared with the same period last year. Affected by floating losses on securities investment, the company's 22Q3 fair value change income and investment income recorded-1.1yuan and-40 million yuan respectively, further dragging down the performance.
With the rapid development of non-cement business, some of the profits of the main cement industry have declined. The company's high-margin aggregate business continues to maintain rapid growth, 22Q3 sales of 4.86 million tons, + 58.8% year-on-year, Inner Mongolia Songta cement aggregate production line has been successfully put into production. The comprehensive disposal capacity of coordinated disposal of environmental protection business continued to improve, and the category of hazardous waste disposal became more complete. The company's environmental protection business achieved an income of 156 million yuan in the first three quarters.
Maintain the "better than the market" rating. We estimate that the EPS of the company will be 1.28,1.80,2.10 yuan per share respectively in 2022-2024, and the reasonable value range will be 12.60-14.40 yuan per share to give the PE in 2023 8 times.
Risk hint. The cement boom has exceeded expectations, and the progress of various investment projects has been slow.