Main points of investment:
The company released the third quarterly report of 2022: during the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 1.588 billion yuan (YoY+34%), net profit of 255 million yuan (YoY+39%), and non-return net profit of 230 million yuan (YoY+46%). Among them, Q3 achieved revenue of 638 million yuan (YoY+40%, QoQ+17%) in a single quarter, net profit of 113 million yuan (YoY+66%,QoQ+23%), and net profit of 108 million yuan (YoY+96%, QoQ+33%). The performance was in line with expectations.
Q3 quarter comprehensive gross profit margin of 24.75%, year-on-year growth of 1.81pct, month-on-month growth of 2.56pct, net profit of 17.65%, year-on-year growth of 2.76pct, month-on-month reduction of 0.82pct. In terms of expenses, the company's Q3 financial expenses-12.35 million yuan, mainly due to the exchange gains brought about by the appreciation of the US dollar, and the management expenses were 20.08 million yuan, which increased compared with the previous month.
Overseas demand for sugar and alcohol products is strong, new production capacity is launched as scheduled, exchange rate and shipping costs have improved, and the company's Q3 performance has reached a new high.
The high energy cost in Europe has affected the production and cost of related functional sugar alcohol enterprises. as the world's leading manufacturer of crystal xylitol, crystal sorbitol and crystal maltol, the company has a strong demand for export products. In August this year, the company's 20,000 tons of maltitol expansion technical renovation project was put into production as scheduled, and the production capacity was released quickly, which brought increments to the company's performance.
At the same time, the exchange rate fluctuated greatly in the Q3 quarter, the appreciation of the US dollar brought the company about 20 million exchange gains, superimposed improvement in shipping costs, and the company's performance reached an all-time high.
Zhoushan base focuses on the layout of health food ingredients, consolidate the position of sugar and alcohol industry, further enrich product structure, and open up the space for future growth. In September this year, the company issued a plan for the convertible bond project, planning and building a second production base in Zhejiang Zhoushan International Grain and Oil Industrial Park, laying out 1 million tons of corn deep processing health food ingredients project, using corn as raw material. Production of sorbitol, fructose syrup, maltose syrup, glucose syrup, maltol, mannitol, polyglucose, resistant dextrin, modified starch for food, aloxone sugar and other health food ingredients. Vertically improve the layout of the upstream supply chain, ensure the supply of starch, the main raw materials, horizontal development continues to enrich the product structure to meet the diversified needs of customers. In addition, Zhoushan International Grain and Oil Industrial Park is an important grain distribution center and processing trade base in the eastern coastal areas of China, and it is one of the core blocks of the national port logistics hub. Large-scale grain storage and turnover ensure a stable supply of corn and other major raw materials needed for the company's project, and effectively reduce logistics and transportation costs.
Investment analysis opinion: the third quarter performance hit a new high, exchange rate and shipping costs and other factors played a positive impact, raising the company's 2022 return net profit forecast of 331 million yuan (the original value is 3.08), maintaining the 2023-2024 return net profit forecast of 4.46 yuan, 570 million yuan, corresponding to PE of 20X, 15x, 11x, respectively, to maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: 1) a sharp rise in the price of raw materials; 2) sharp fluctuations in product prices; 3) the promotion of new projects is not as expected.
