Event: according to the company's third-quarter performance report, 22Q1-Q3 achieved operating income of 2.285 billion yuan, up 61.66% from the same period last year; net profit from home was 59.1742 million yuan, up 46.2% from the same period last year; deducting 39.2389 million yuan from non-net profit, up 182.15% from 22Q3 to 816 million yuan, up 51.93% from the same period last year; net profit from home in a single quarter was 16.1879 million yuan, down 5.86% from the same period last year The deduction of non-net profit in a single quarter was 11.6321 million yuan, up 239.44% from the same period last year.
The price of Q3 is reduced / the cost is high and the profit space is compressed. After two increases in Q2, the price of photovoltaic glass experienced two price decreases in early July and early September respectively, in which 3.2mm coated glass Q3 decreased by 2 yuan / square meter to 26.5 yuan / square meter, 2.0mm coated glass Q3 decreased by 1.92 yuan / square meter to 20 yuan / square meter, on the other hand, the price of soda ash in the main raw materials decreased but remained high, while fuel prices such as natural gas / petroleum coke rose month-on-month / year on year. Price downward superimposed cost upward, the company's profit margin has been greatly compressed, 22Q3 gross profit margin of 8.09%, compared with 22Q2 downlink 1.29pct. During the period of the company, the cost control was stable, and the expense rate during the 22Q3 period was 5.1% and 5.2%, with a slight decrease in the year-on-year expense rate, in which the sales / management expense rate decreased by 0.6/1.2pct compared with the same period last year, and the company's management efficiency was improved.
Q3 operating cash flow is negative, due to the increase in the purchase of raw materials and receivables. The company's 22Q3 cash-to-cash ratio of 0.56x 21Q3 is 0.52x, which is slightly higher than the cash recovery rate of the same period last year. In terms of receivables, the company's accounts receivable and notes receivable increased by 59.2% and 114% respectively over the same period last year. At the same time, due to expenses such as the purchase of raw materials by cash exchange, the cash outflow of goods / services purchased by 22Q3 increased by 56% compared with the same period last year. Under the influence of two factors, the company had a net operating cash outflow of 13 million yuan in the current period. Affected by the supply and demand of the industry chain, photovoltaic glass faces a certain pressure of cash flow management and control.
Q4 silicon production capacity to speed up the pace of production, supply and demand or effective improvement. The downward price of Q3 is mainly affected by the cost pressure of the component factory, while the situation of the industrial chain may be improved in the later stage, the production capacity of Q4 silicon material has been put into operation one after another, and the supply rhythm of actual output has accelerated. At the same time, Q4 is the peak season of traditional installation, and the demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to increase under multiple factors. Although new production lines are still ignited and put into production before the end of the year, the improvement in demand may lead to an improvement in the supply and demand structure of photovoltaic glass. At present, part of the domestic bidding projects are promoted, the demand for large-size battery is good, and the demand is supported. We believe that the production of superimposed silicon material in the traditional peak season of installation in the fourth quarter is accelerated, and the supply and demand situation of the industry may improve substantially. At the same time, the price of Q4 natural gas has entered the traditional peak season, the cost upward superimposed the impact of supply and demand improvement, and the price of photovoltaic glass may have increased. As a leading enterprise of ultra-thin glass, the company has its own differentiation advantages and has signed a long 1.6mm order with Tianhe. With the increase of ultra-thin glass production capacity, the profitability will be effectively improved under the double improvement of demand / price.
Investment advice: considering the downward adjustment in prices and the upward pressure on raw materials, and the expected losses in electronic glass and components business, we adjust the company's 22-24 net profit forecast for home ownership to 1.13332 pounds 576 million yuan, corresponding to EPS 0.57 pounds 1.67 / 2.90 yuan, PE valuation of 54.22 18.48 pounds 10.63 times, to maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the capacity of the photovoltaic glass industry has expanded more than expected, the price of raw fuel has risen higher than expected, the production capacity construction of the company's photovoltaic glass fundraising project is not as expected, and the expansion of the electronic glass market is not as expected. The epidemic affects follow-up production and construction or transport and logistics activities.