Event: the company released the three-quarter report of 2022, with revenue of 3.96 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2022, + 24% year-on-year, net profit of 254 million yuan,-48%, and non-return net profit of 284 million yuan,-48%. Among them, Q3 achieved revenue of 1.167 billion yuan in a single quarter, + 4% of the same period last year, net profit of-51 million yuan and 139% of the same period last year, deducting non-return net profit of-44 million yuan and-129% of the same period last year.
The decline in Q3 copper and cobalt prices is a drag on the company's performance. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 19.32%, year-on-year-11.07pct, and a net profit rate of 6.4%, year-on-year-8.77pct.
Among them, in the third quarter, the company realized gross profit margin of-0.29%, month-on-month-26.49pct; net profit rate of-4.41%, month-on-month-15.19pct, mainly or series: (1) the average price of LME copper / MB cobalt fell by 20% and 31% respectively in the third quarter, resulting in the compression of gross profit margin; (2) the net income of fair value change of 2022Q3 company was-12.86 million yuan, which was 45.45 million yuan lower than that of Q2 quarter, which was a drag on the company's net profit.
The main projects are advancing steadily, and the layout of the industrial chain is becoming more and more perfect. In order to further enrich the company's cobalt compound product variety, improve the smelting link layout and deeply participate in the field of downstream battery materials, and strengthen the company's position in the supply chain of new energy vehicles, the company's annual output of 5000 tons of cobalt powder technical renovation project and 5000 tons of cobalt hydroxide project were put into production in March and June 2022, respectively, the company's cobalt powder production capacity increased from 3000 tons to 5000 tons, cobalt hydroxide production capacity increased from 5000 tons to 10000 tons. The first phase of the new cobalt material with an annual capacity of 10,000 tons and the ternary precursor project with an annual capacity of 26000 tons has completed civil construction and equipment installation, and is currently in trial production.
Investment suggestion: as one of the world-famous professional cobalt powder manufacturers, the company has strong competitiveness in the global cobalt powder market. We estimate that the return net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 3.88,5 and 613 million yuan respectively, the EPS is 1.25,1.61,1.98 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 34.47,26.76 and 21.84 times respectively.
Risk hint: new business layout is not progressing as expected; copper and cobalt prices have fallen sharply; and global economic growth has slowed.