Main points of investment
2022Q3 single-quarter revenue year-on-year + 39.78%, year-on-year net profit + 65.74%, the performance achieved ultra-rapid growth, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Crystal sugar alcohol products volume, the company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations
The Russia-Ukraine incident continues, the export substitution continues to be interpreted, and the sugar substitute manufacturing leader benefits obviously. 1) in the first three quarters of 2022, the company realized revenue of 1.588 billion yuan (yoy+33.71%) and net profit of 255 million yuan (yoy+38.61%). 2) Q3 realized revenue of 638 million yuan (yoy+39.78%) and net profit of 113 million yuan (yoy+65.74%) in a single quarter. Crystal sugar alcohol products increased significantly, with revenue in the first three quarters + 43.01% compared with the same period last year. The company seizes the historical opportunity and takes advantage of the situation.
China's corn cost advantage continues to rise, driving companies to enjoy the export "scissors gap"
Profitability continues to improve and the level of fee control is robust. Q3 achieved a gross profit margin of 24.75% (yoy+1.81pct) in a single quarter and a net profit margin of 17.65% (yoy+2.76pct). Both gross profit margin and net profit margin reached 21-year highs. In the first three quarters of 22 years, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 22.42% (yoy-1.91pct), net profit rate of 16.03% (yoy+0.57pct), sales expense rate of 1.42%, year-on-year-0.48pcts, management expense rate of 3.25%, year-on-year increase of 0.2pcts, R & D expense rate of 4.48%, year-on-year-0.56pcts, and the expense rate remained basically stable.
Seize the historical opportunity and forge ahead vigorously, with the aim of creating another Huakang
1) the company maintains a stable cooperative relationship with major customers, seize the opportunities in the European market, and increase overseas shipments.
In the first three quarters, overseas revenue reached 824 million yuan, + 64.85% compared with the same period last year, and the proportion of overseas income increased to 51.88%. 2) the company's technical renovation project was put into production at the end of August, with an additional production capacity of 20000 tons of maltol per year and 6000 tons of liquid maltol per year, enhancing the certainty of performance and catering to the concept of low-carbon green to achieve healthy development. The company issued convertible bonds of 990 million yuan in September to carry out the construction of Zhejiang Dinghai Phase I "1 million ton Corn Deep processing Health Food ingredient Project", covering starch sugar / sugar alcohol, dietary fiber, aloxone sugar, lactic acid / polylactic acid, amino acid and other products. Smooth the price risk of single sugar alcohol products and provide customers with diversified products.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company's main business is food sweetener manufacturing. We estimate that in 2022-2024, the company's revenue will be 1.908 billion yuan, 25.88% and 19.10% respectively, an increase of 19.72%, 25.88%, 19.10%, and an estimated net profit of 3.46%, 4.16%, 497 million yuan per share, with a year-on-year growth rate of 46.20%, 20.32% and 19.38%, corresponding to 1.45 EPS 1.742.08 yuan per share. The corresponding PE is as much as that in 21-18-15. In view of the broad prospects and competitiveness of the company, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The risk of product price fluctuation, the risk of repeated epidemic situation, the risk of shipping cost, the risk of aggravating market competition, etc.
