This report is read as follows:
Q3's gross profit margin has rebounded sharply, its profitability has been continuously enhanced, and its profit growth rate has exceeded expectations.
Main points of investment:
"increase the holdings" and maintain the target price of 21.56 yuan. According to the assumption of the three quarterly reports, we will raise the forecast of gross profit margin for the fourth quarter, increase the expense rate forecast for 2023 and 2024, raise the forecast for 2022 and 2023, and lower the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the EPS of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 0.83 (+ 0.20) yuan, 1.23 (+ 0.16) yuan and 1.68 (- 0.15) yuan respectively. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
The growth rate of income is in line with expectations, and the growth rate of profits is higher than expected. The company released its three-quarter report in 2022, with operating income of 1.686 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 89.32% over the same period last year, of which Q3 alone achieved revenue of 522 million yuan, an increase of 78.56% over the same period last year. In the first three quarters, the net profit was 188 million yuan, an increase of 229.16% over the same period last year, of which the single Q3 realized a net profit of 81.0013 million yuan, an increase of 350.41% over the same period last year. The growth rate of income is in line with expectations, and the growth rate of profits is higher than expected.
Gross profit margin has rebounded significantly and profitability has been continuously enhanced. The company's gross profit margin has rebounded to 29.52% in the first three quarters, up from 26.12 in the same period last year. Among them, the gross profit margin in the third quarter is as high as 34.92%, which verifies our earlier logic about the improvement of the company's profitability. It is expected that the annual gross profit margin will remain at a high position, and the annual profit elasticity is expected to continue to be released.
Various industries will continue to make efforts to promote the development of a new type of industrialization. The company's new orders in the new energy, tobacco, petroleum and petrochemical industries are growing rapidly, achieving balanced development in many industries. Among them, the business model in the tobacco industry is upgraded from traditional integration to information project system, which is expected to drive the overall comprehensive gross profit margin up. The recent report of the Congress pointed out that the focus of economic development should be on the real economy and promote the construction of a new type of industrialization. As a leader in the field of intelligent logistics, the company is expected to fully benefit from the upgrading dividend of manufacturing logistics automation in the future.
Risk tips: the risk of intertemporal confirmation of orders; the risk of a sharp rise in the price of raw materials.
