Main points of investment
The net profit of 2022Q3 was 77 million yuan, an increase of 1.06% over the previous month, which was lower than market expectations. In the first three quarters of 22, the company's revenue was 3.29 billion yuan, up 1.68%; the net profit returned to the mother was 280 million yuan, down 12.89%; among them, the revenue of Q3 company in 22 years was 1.237 billion yuan, an increase of 0.74% and 31.48%; the net profit of the company was 77 million yuan, down 35.87% and 1.06%, of which copper clad laminate lost 15 million yuan +. In terms of profitability, the 22-year Q3 gross profit margin is 15.84%, the same drop in 8.81pct, 7.28pct; the return to the mother net interest rate of 6.22%, the same drop in 3.55pct, the same drop in 1.87pct.
Q3 shipments increased month-on-month, while profit per ton decreased significantly from the previous month. The company shipped 11000 tons of Q3, an annular increase of 30%. We expect Q4 to ship 15000 tons, an annualized increase of 35%, and annual shipments of 44000 tons, with a 20% increase of about 70,000 tons in 23 years, an increase of nearly 60%. We estimate that the profit of Q3 per ton is 3600 yuan, a decline of 64%, mainly due to insufficient orders, capacity climbing leads to a decrease in capacity utilization and an increase in unit cost. If we add 15 million yuan plus loss of clad laminate, we estimate that the profit per ton will be about 5000 yuan, representing a 50% drop. With the gradual recovery of orders and the reduction of costs after the increase in capacity utilization, we expect the Q4 profit per ton to recover to 90,000 yuan / ton, and the annual profit per ton is about 90,000 yuan / ton.
The expansion of production capacity has been promoted steadily, and the product structure has been optimized throughout the year. The company has a production capacity of 43000 tons at the end of 21 years, 12000 tons in Huizhou and 15000 tons in Qinghai. We expect the company's effective production capacity to be 55000 tons in 22 years. In addition, the production capacity of Hubei Huangshi Phase I is expected to be put into production in the second half of 23 years. We expect the company's production capacity to increase to 135000 tons. In the leading industry, we expect 23-year shipments of about 70, 000 tons, an increase of nearly 60%. The trend of ultra-thinning of copper foil continues, the company's overseas customers volume, we expect the proportion of overseas customers to increase to about 30%, and gradually switch 6 μ m products, the product structure is optimized throughout the year. At the same time, the company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Dawson for comprehensive and in-depth cooperation in the field of copper foil equipment, which will help to further enhance the competitiveness of the company.
The cost is well controlled, and the expense rate is lower than that of the previous month. Company Q3 period expense 129 million yuan, same drop 28.04%, period expense rate 10.41%, same month comparison drop 4.16/2.84pct, sales expense 9 million yuan, sales expense rate 0.73%, same drop 0.07pct; management expense 40 million yuan, management expense rate 3.25%, same drop 1.56pct; financial expense 33 million yuan, financial expense rate 2.67%, same drop 1.54pct The R & D expenditure is 46 million yuan, and the R & D expenditure rate is 3.76%, which also reduces 0.99pct.
Profit forecast and investment advice: considering the downward trend of copper foil processing fees, we revised the company's 22-24 net profit of 4.33 million yuan (RMB 654 million), which was originally estimated to be 907 million yuan (1.274 million yuan), an increase of 7%, 51%, 35%, corresponding to the PE of 39-26-19, and the subsequent increase in capacity utilization will lead to cost reduction, continuous optimization of product structure, and maintain the "Buy" rating.
Risk hint: electric vehicle sales are not as expected and competition intensifies.
