Event: Q3 company realized operating income of 958 million yuan,-4.45% of the same period last year, and net profit of 37 million yuan, 37.93% of the same period last year. In the first three quarters, the company realized operating income of 2.696 billion yuan,-5.53% compared with the same period last year, and realized net profit of 14 million yuan,-77.18%, compared with the same period last year.
The main industry of kitchen electricity is under pressure, and the heat pump income can be expected. The decline in revenue of Q3 company is basically the same as that of Q2 (- 4.11%), and the profits in the first three quarters have been successfully reversed. We believe that the main reason for the decline in revenue is that the company's main businesses such as kitchen electricity and water heaters are affected by the downturn in the industry. Q3 China's heat pump customs export scale is + 62% compared with the same period last year, and we expect Q4 heat pump revenue to continue to grow steadily with the advent of the heating season.
Improve profitability and increase investment in research and development. In terms of profitability, Q3 achieved a gross profit margin of 29.61%, year-on-year + 1.77pct and month-on-month + 0.18pct. We believe that the improvement in the company's gross margin is mainly due to: 1) the decline in raw material cost pressure; 2) the increase in the scale of the company's heat pump business, and the scale effect increases the company's gross profit level. In terms of expenses, the company's Q3 sales, management, R & D and financial expenses are respectively year-on-year-1.27/+1.70/+3.88/+0.15pct, the company has significantly increased the control of sales costs, while increasing the investment in R & D expenses. Affected by the increase in gross margin and exchange earnings, Q3 achieved a net sales rate of 3.81%, a year-on-year + 1.17pct.
Inventory levels increased slightly and net operating cash flow increased. 1) the total amount of monetary funds + transactional financial assets at the end of the 22Q3 period was 698 million yuan, which was-12.35% higher than that at the beginning of the period, mainly due to the decline in the company's operating income; notes receivable and accounts receivable totaled 334 million yuan, + 9.37% compared with the beginning of the period; ending inventory totaled 737 million yuan, compared with the beginning + 1.64% of the position Q3 notes payable and accounts payable totaled 960 million yuan, which was + 5.35% compared with the beginning of the period. 2) the net cash flow generated by Q3 operating activities was 62 million yuan, compared with-164 million yuan in the same period last year, mainly because more cash was paid for goods and services last year.
Profit forecast: we are optimistic about the development trend of the global heat pump industry. As an important company in domestic heat pump export, the company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of overseas heat pump demand. We estimate that in 2022-2024, the company will achieve operating income of 40.44 million yuan, 4.984 billion yuan, 21.5% compared with the same period of last year, and net profit of 1.94 million yuan, 3.31 million, and 25.0%, respectively.
Risk factors: lower than expected heat pump export, epidemic situation affecting production and delivery, rising cost of raw materials, real estate affecting demand for products such as water heaters and water purifiers, etc.
