Main points of investment
2022Q3 revenue year-on-year + 257%, month-on-month-2%, deducting non-profit unrealized profit, performance below market expectations. The company's 2022Q1-3 realized operating income of 1.377 billion yuan, an increase of 202.53% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 33 million yuan, an increase of 91.40% over the same period last year. Of this total, 2022Q3 realized operating income of 508 million yuan, an increase of 257.29% over the same period last year, down 1.58% from the previous year; the net profit of returning to the mother was 5 million yuan, an increase of 1629.79% over the same period last year, deducting the non-return net profit of-5.52 million yuan, + 70.27% over the same period last year (the company received a government subsidy of 10 million yuan in July 2022). Deducting non-return plus equity incentive fees we expect to remain in a state of small profit, and the overall performance is lower than market expectations.
Affected by the high price of raw material inventory, 2022Q3 gross profit margin has declined a lot compared with the previous month. With inventory consumption and automatic reduction, Q4 is expected to improve its gross profit margin. The gross profit margin of 2022Q1-3 was 13.34%, down 11.36% from the same period last year, 12.25pct and 2.00pct from the same period last year, and the month-on-month repair of gross profit margin was not obvious, mainly due to the unconsumed cost of raw materials such as high-priced bulk, IGBT and chips in the second half of the year, and the increase in the proportion of drive assembly business with relatively low gross profit margin. With the consumption of high-priced raw material inventory and automated production line, the cost-side pressure is expected to improve marginally, and we expect the 2022Q4 gross profit margin to increase month-on-month; the 2022Q1-3 return net profit rate is 2.36%, down 1.37% from the same period last year, up 0.80pct from the same period last year and decreasing 0.72pct from the previous year.
The volume of new energy passenger cars has been greatly increased, and the company has full orders on hand, which will help ease the shortage of production capacity, enhance the platform capacity of internal research and development, and superimpose higher delivery capacity than peers, which is expected to continue to grow rapidly in 2022. 1) passenger cars: in 2022, the company mainly generates revenue from 15 + customers, such as Geely, Wuling, Weima, XPeng Inc. and so on. at present, the factories in Zhuhai, which are mainly composed of A + cars, and the factories in Shandong, which are mainly composed of A00 and special cars, are in high capacity utilization. With the release of capacity from the two major plants, it is expected to form 1 million sets of capacity, while the automation rate begins to increase, escorting the delivery of orders in 2023. 2022Q3 Geely, Wuling, Weima and other models continue to increase, GAC, BYD and other core customers wait for fixed-point landing (powertrain-power assembly-based). 2) Commercial vehicles & special vehicles: bound to Mobil, SAIC Chase, Hangzhou fork, Xugong (added in 2022), the gross profit margin is still much higher than that of passenger car products. The company continues to improve the R & D platform capacity of the internal production line, sufficient raw material inventory reserves, sound supply chain, and is expected to continue rapid growth in 2022.
Profit forecast and investment rating: due to the return of the company's profit margin to less than expected, we downgraded the net profit from 2022 to 2024 to 86 million yuan (- 65 million yuan) / 205 million yuan (- 136 million yuan) / 355 million yuan (- 180 million yuan), respectively. Compared with the same period last year, the corresponding current price PE is 78 times, 33 times and 19 times, respectively, compared with the same period last year. Taking into account the company's position in the head of the electric drive, and the technical advantages of single-tube parallel connection, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the sales of passenger car-related products are less than expected and the risk of rising prices of raw materials.
