What happened: recently, the company announced that the company's income in the first three quarters of 2022 was about 10.8 billion yuan, an increase of 5.44% over the same period last year, and its net profit was about 1.65 billion yuan, an increase of 9.32% over the same period last year. Deducting the non-return net profit of about 1.48 billion yuan, an increase of 1.05% over the same period last year In the third quarter alone, the income was 4.3 billion yuan, up 17.97% over the same period last year, and the net profit returned to the mother was 650 million yuan, up 312.78% over the same period last year, deducting 590 million yuan from the non-return net profit, an increase of 336.67% over the same period last year.
Comments:
The glass economy is in the doldrums, but the solar business supports the company's profits.
1) We believe that due to the weak demand for real estate downstream and the spread of the epidemic in some regions, the demand for glass plate is under greater pressure in 2022, glass prices have dropped significantly, and at the same time, affected by overseas emergencies, major energy (natural gas, etc.), soda ash prices remain high, the profitability of the glass industry is tested, we expect the company's Q3 glass industry net profit to be under pressure.
2) however, thanks to the strong demand for photovoltaic installation and the rising price of polysilicon, the company's previously continuously depreciated solar business has come back to life. 22H1 solar business has achieved a net profit of 280 million yuan, and we expect 22Q3 solar business to still contribute considerable net profit.
The impairment of assets may come to an end, and the net profit of returning home will be greatly increased compared with the same period last year. The asset impairment loss of 2021Q3 is as high as 670 million yuan, especially the solar energy business continues to be impaired, the company is light, we expect the asset impairment may come to an end. Due to the base, the 22Q3 homing net profit of the company increased by 312.78% compared with the same period last year.
Dachi kiln has the advantage of backwardness, with a large amount of photovoltaic power to open the growth space. Under the capacity swap policy, the possibility of large-scale expansion of float glass is low, but the expansion in the photovoltaic field has opened up room for growth for the company.
By the end of 2021, the company has a photovoltaic Calendering glass production capacity of 430000 tons. According to the company's 2021 annual report, the company is building four photovoltaic glass production lines in Fengyang and one photovoltaic glass production line in Xianning (both daily melting capacity is 1200 tons). In addition, the company plans to build two new photovoltaic glass production lines with a daily melting capacity of 1200 tons in Beihai City, Guangxi.
Maintain the "better than the market" rating. We believe that the company polishes three pieces of glass, builds a brand, and focuses on the strategy of the main glass business. With the company's profound technology, the company's float glass and engineering glass are expected to continue to serve as profit stabilizers; Dachi kiln has the advantage of backwardness, and the company makes photovoltaic glass to open the growth space; the company's electronic glass can achieve a two-strong breakthrough, which can be used as a standard for overseas first-tier brands. Hope to gradually replace domestic products. We estimate that the return net profit of the company in 2022-2024 is 20.4,23.8 and 2.6 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is about 0.67,0.77 and 0.85 yuan per share respectively. We give the company PE 16-20 times in 2022, with a reasonable value range of 10.72-13.40 yuan. Maintain the "better than the market" rating.
Risk hint. Float glass demand fell sharply, asset impairment risk.