Events:
The company announced its results for the third quarter of 2022. In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 391 million yuan, an increase of 11.81% over the same period last year; net profit of 135 million yuan, down 20.02% from the same period last year; non-net profit of 129 million yuan, down 22.03% from the same period last year; and basic earnings per share of 0.84 yuan.
The performance is still down from the same period last year, and the month-on-month performance has improved.
In the first three quarters, the company's revenue increased, mainly due to the company's improvement of product competitiveness, obtaining more orders and increasing product sales revenue; the decline in profits was mainly due to the increase in costs caused by the sharp rise in the price of raw materials such as polysilicon, as well as the payment of new shares after the implementation of equity incentives.
In a single quarter, it still declined from the same period last year and improved compared with the same period last year. In the third quarter, the company achieved revenue of 128 million yuan, down 12.11% from the same period last year, up 5.33% from the previous year, and realized net profit of 44 million yuan from the same period last year, down 35.54% from the same period last year and up 8.84% from the previous year.
The business of the three major silicon materials is progressing smoothly and continues to be optimistic about the smooth development of the market of the three major business sectors of the long-term growth power company. Large diameter silicon material business, the company continues to optimize the sales structure of single crystal products according to the downstream market demand. Silicon parts business, the domestic 12-inch integrated circuit manufacturing capacity continues to expand, more machine processes into a mature state, silicon parts demand will grow, the company has obtained more domestic customer evaluation and certification opportunities, approached with more 12-inch integrated circuit manufacturers, a number of material numbers have been evaluated and passed. Semiconductor large-size wafer business, a certain type of wafer has been shipped to a Japanese customer for a long time. The 8-inch test chip has passed the evaluation certification, and the company is now a qualified supplier of this material to several domestic integrated circuit manufacturers.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
We estimate that the operating income from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.51 pounds 6.91 / 885 million yuan (the original value is 6.80 pounds 9.29 / 1.132 billion yuan), with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.16 percent 25.44 percent and 28.10 percent respectively. The net profit of return to the home is 1.79max 2.46 / 327 million CNY (the original value is 2.89 RMB3.81 / 451 million), and the year-on-year growth rate is-17.96%, 37.27% and 32.84%, respectively, and the PE is 2.04 CNY, 14.37% and 40x/29x/22x per share respectively. Considering that the company has completed the layout of large-diameter monocrystalline silicon materials, silicon parts and wafers, the company is given 35 times PE in 2023, corresponding to the target price of 53.82 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: downstream demand is lower than expected, silicon wafer research and development progress is not as expected, COVID-19 epidemic leads to a decline in demand and other risks.
