Core ideas:
Event: the company announced that the company reported revenue of 2.101 billion yuan in the first three quarters, + 37.97% year-on-year, 306 million yuan net profit, + 7.86% year-on-year net profit, 278 million yuan non-return net profit,-0.28% year-on-year. 22Q3 realized revenue of 694 million yuan, year-on-year + 23.11%, month-on-month-2.05%, and net profit of 83 million yuan,-10.04% and-28.68%, respectively.
Q3 revenue is stable month-on-month, and the decline in processing fees is a drag on performance. According to the company's semi-annual report, the total revenue of lithium copper foil business accounts for 72.07%, of which 6 μ m extremely thin lithium copper foil is mainly supplied in small batches of 4.5 μ m copper foil. According to Wind, the processing fee of 22Q3 8 μ m lithium copper foil is 31300 yuan / ton, the ring ratio is-13.62%, the 6 μ m lithium copper foil processing fee is 40800 yuan / ton, the ring ratio is-11.44%, the 4.5 μ m lithium copper foil processing fee is 71700 yuan / ton, the ring ratio is-9.75%. The company's Q3 gross profit margin is 16.1%, Q3-6.89pp, Q3 expense rate is 5.46%, Q3-0.18pp, net profit rate is 11.99%, Q3-4.48pp.
Actively expand the production of lithium copper foil, cut into the composite copper foil collar city. According to the investor relations activity record released by the company on August 31st, the company currently has an annual production capacity of 29500 tons of high-performance electronic copper foil, with a production capacity of 26000 tons under construction, and plans to build a high-performance copper foil project in Yancheng with an annual production capacity of about 80, 000 tons. According to the company's announcement on October 10th, Wuhan Zhongyi New Materials Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary, was established and registered, and plans to build an annual production line of 5 million square meters to engage in the research, development, production and sales of composite copper foil and other materials.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 2.63 billion yuan, 4.529 billion yuan and 7.104 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit of returning mother is 418 million yuan, 652 million yuan and 1.019 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 4.14,6.45 and 10.08 yuan per share respectively. Maintain the company's fair value of 122.17 yuan per share, corresponding to 23 years of PE valuation of about 19 times, maintain the company's "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the risk of high concentration of downstream customers, the risk of intensified competition in the industry, and the risk of major obstacles to the future transformation of 4.5 μ m lithium copper foil.
