Main points of investment
The company publishes its third quarterly report for 2022. The revenue in the first three quarters of 2022 was 10.804 billion yuan, + 5.44% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit returned to the mother was 1.651 billion yuan, + 9.32% compared with the same period last year. The net profit after deducting non-return was 1.481 billion yuan, + 1.05% compared with the same period last year.
Of this total, the revenue in the third quarter was 4.285 billion yuan, + 17.97% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit was 649 million yuan, + 312.78%, and 594 million yuan, + 336.67%, respectively. The high increase in performance was mainly due to a loss of 672 million yuan in asset impairment in the same period last year, but not this year. If the influence of this factor is excluded, the net profit of Q3 is-21.67% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit of Q3 is-26.50% compared with the same period last year.
From a quarterly point of view, the company's operating income of Q1, Q2 and Q3 reached 2.786 billion yuan, 3.734 billion yuan and 4.285 billion yuan respectively, which was-7.35%, + 3.48% and + 17.97% respectively over the same period last year. Q3 revenue growth accelerated, mainly due to the company's polysilicon production capacity, silicon prices continued to rise and photovoltaic glass new kilns put into production.
The company achieved a comprehensive gross profit margin of 28.79% in the first three quarters of 2022, down 8.74pct from the same period last year. From a quarterly point of view, the company's Q1, Q2 and Q3 achieved gross profit margins of 28.34%, 29.25% and 28.68%, respectively, compared with the same period last year-8.97pct,-8.62pct,-8.71pct, mainly due to the impact of major downstream, such as real estate and consumer electronics, the weakening price of float glass, the decline of electronic glass sales, the superimposed price increase of raw materials, and the short-term pressure on the company's profitability.
The company achieved a net interest rate of 15.35% in the first three quarters of 2022, an increase of 0.35pct over the same period last year, mainly due to the provision of 698 million yuan for impairment of long-term assets in the same period last year, which was not due to this this year; the expense rate during the period was 11.72%, down 0.09pct from the same period last year, mainly due to the decrease in management fees.
The net operating cash flow of the company in the first three quarters of 2022 was 1.619 billion yuan, compared with-1.017 billion yuan in the same period last year, and the net operating cash flow per share was 0.53 yuan, which decreased by-0.33 yuan compared with the same period last year. From a quarterly point of view, the net operating cash flow per share of Q1, Q2 and Q3 is 0.03, 0.26 and 0.23 yuan respectively, which is-0.08 yuan,-0.18 yuan and-0.07 yuan respectively compared with the same period last year. From the perspective of income-to-cash ratio, the company's income-to-cash ratio in the first three quarters of 2022 was 103.00% and 116.06% respectively, which was higher than that of the same period last year-5.67pct and + 0.41pct. In terms of cash flow, the net cash flow from investment activities is + 0.03% from the same period last year, and the net cash flow from fund-raising activities is + 485.49% from the same period last year.
Balance sheet analysis: the asset-liability ratio at the end of this report is 47.72%, which is + 7.23 pct compared with the change at the end of last year, mainly due to the change of long-term borrowing of the company by + 193% compared with the end of last year.
Profit forecast and rating: we expect the return net profit from 2022 to 2024 is 20.96,26.42 and 3.211 billion yuan, according to the corresponding PE on October 24 is 9.7x, 7.7x and 6.3x, respectively. Maintain the "prudent overweight" rating.
Risk tips: macroeconomic pressure; a sharp rise in raw material prices; the risk of bad debt losses caused by accounts receivable; new business expansion is not as expected; increased competition leads to a decline in gross profit margin.