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试图躲开熊市的同时,往往也错过了与牛市共舞的机会?

While trying to avoid a bear market, do you often miss the chance to dance with the bull market?

Futu News ·  Oct 25, 2022 22:07

Recently, market volatility has intensified. After US stocks opened on October 24, US-listed companies collectively fell.$NASDAQ Golden Dragon China (.HXC.US)$At one point, the decline was more than 20%, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index has fallen about 50% since the end of 2021.

For investors, the biggest concern is whether there is any hope in the market after the shock.

In the darkest moments when the market is extremely pessimistic, one will always think of John Templeton, the master of contrarian investment, and his famous saying: "A bull market is born of pessimism, grows in doubt, becomes optimistic and dies of fanaticism".

Historical experience shows that after such a large-scale collapse, the market is likely to rebound.In the past 30 years, the MSCI China index has fallen more than 8 per cent only 13 times, while 11 of those 13 times rebounded over the next five days and rose 10 times over the next 60 days, with the biggest increase of 80 per cent.After falling more than 8 per cent since 1998, the MSCI China index has a 100 per cent chance of rebounding over the next 60 days.

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Despite the obvious fluctuations in the market, there is no lack of foreign institutions optimistic about follow-up opportunities. Marko Kolanovic, chief global market strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co, wrote in the customer report.The rapid decline in Chinese stocks is out of line with fundamentals, and the sell-off provides a buying opportunity for equity investors.

"We think this is a good [buying] opportunity, given China's expected recovery in economic growth and monetary and fiscal stimulus," Kolanovic said. He also mentioned that China's latest third-quarter GDP and other economic data are a pleasant surprise.

How does the stock market fall to appease his panicked heart?

In fact, on the long way to invest, investors will inevitably encounter a stock falling for a long time. At this time, investors are often puzzled by whether to sell the stock or continue to increase their positions.

Investment guru Peter Lynch once cited a famous case in his speech: in the 1970s, Polaroid, one of the star stocks at that time, was a strong company and a famous blue chip.In the course of the stock's decline, countless investors comforted themselves by saying, "the stock price has fallen so much that it can't fall any more." "However, Polaroid shares never recovered, falling from more than $130 to $18 in just one year.

That's what Lynch warned not to buy easily just because stock prices have fallen sharply. Investors need to judge whether a stock is a "flying knife" or a real discount.

As for how to deal with the decline in the stock market, Lynch also prescribed three "tranquilizers":

  • Don't panic and sell it all at a low price (a large number of "meat cuts" in a stock market crash or stock price collapse will put investors in another danger-short, that is, no stocks in hand when the stock market is soaring)

  • Have the courage to hold on to the stocks of a good company

  • Dare to buy shares of good companies while they are low.

Don't admire us at the peak, don't turn around and leave at the bottom, let's go together on the investment journey and keep warm together.

Edit / Corrine

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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