Event: on October 24, 2022, the company released the third quarter report of 2022, showing that the company achieved operating income of 9.4 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 14.88% over the same period last year. The net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was 2.706 billion yuan, an increase of 46.60% over the same period last year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring profits and losses belonging to shareholders of listed companies was 2.667 billion yuan, an increase of 45.23% over the same period last year.
Results declined in the third quarter of 2022 compared with the previous quarter. In the third quarter of 2022, the company realized a net profit of 617 million yuan belonging to the shareholders of the parent company, an increase of 31.03% over the same period last year, a decrease of 36.22%. Among them, the company earned a net investment income of 875 million yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 151.6% over the same period last year and a decrease of 16.27%.
The profits of the main coke industry declined. 22Q3 achieved coke production of 850400 tons, down 4.18 percent from the same period last year, 7.79 percent from the previous month, and coke sales of 856200 tons, down 2.57 percent from the same period last year and 7.26 percent from the previous year.
The average selling price of 22Q3 coke was 2282.96 yuan / ton, down 13.77% from the same period last year and 22.89% from the previous month.
In terms of cost, the unit purchase cost of 22Q3 coking coal was 1917.93 yuan / ton, down 3.65% from the same period last year and 14.93% from the previous month. As the price side of the decline is higher than the cost side, the main coke industry profit decline, 22Q3 coking gross profit (coke sales income-coking coal purchase amount) of-194 million yuan, into a loss.
The company's chemical prices have risen compared with the same period last year. The prices of 22Q3's main chemical products rose across the board, of which the price of asphalt rose 22.17% from the same period last year, up 5.38% from the previous year; the price of industrial naphthalene rose 44.59% from the same period last year, 4.18% from the previous year; the price of methanol rose 0.4% from the same period last year, down 4.75% from the previous year; the price of carbon black rose 31.04% from the same period last year, up 2.25% from the previous year; and the price of pure benzene rose 5.59% from the same period last year, down 4.48% from the previous year.
It is proposed to build a new 1.4 million t / a coking upgrading project. According to the announcement, in order to improve the level of technology and equipment in the coking industry and promote the development of the coking industry to regionalization, chain, greening and high-end development, the company's controlling shareholder Shanxi Coking Group Co., Ltd. through the integration of Shanxi Hongdong Economic and technological Development Zone (Zhaocheng Park) coke production capacity, promoted 1.44 million tons / year coking upgrading project, the construction of more than 7 meters reheating top coke oven. The construction of the project will help to improve the scale of the company's main coke business, enhance market competitiveness, enhance the independence of listed companies, and avoid competition in the same industry. After the completion of the project, the scale of coking capacity and the concentration of coking by-products in the park will be enhanced. Relying on the existing industrial foundation, Shanxi Coking will focus on high-end carbon materials, carbon-based synthetic new materials and new energy around the comprehensive utilization of coke oven gas and deep processing of tar and benzene, develop high value-added products, enhance the overall efficiency level of the industrial chain, and promote the transformation, upgrading and high-quality development of the traditional coking industry.
Investment suggestion: the company holds a 49% stake in Huajin of China Coal, and its main coal products are rare, high-quality lean coal in the country, with stable and strong sustainable profitability, which will be a favorable support for the company's profits. the price of the main coking coal in Jingtang and Hong Kong rebounded slightly in the fourth quarter, and the company's investment income is expected to increase month-on-month in the fourth quarter. However, considering the decline in the main profit of the coking industry, we downgrade the profit forecast, and it is estimated that the return net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 33.41 billion yuan, and the corresponding EPS is 1.30, 1.41, 1.51, respectively, and the PE corresponding to October 24, 2022 is 4 times, 4 times, 4 times respectively. Maintain the "cautious recommendation" rating.
Risk hint: macroeconomic growth is lower than expected, investment returns in Huajin of China Coal are lower than expected, and coke prices fall sharply.
