Results in the first three quarters of 2022 are in line with expectations
The company announced the results for the third quarter of 2022: the revenue in the first three quarters was 2.121 billion yuan, down 12.65% from the same period last year, and the net profit was 381 million yuan, an increase of 62.83% over the same period last year. The net profit from non-parent was 197 million yuan, down 8.77% from the same period last year. The performance is in line with market expectations, and the substantial increase in net profit is mainly due to the transfer of equity in Qianchuan, Hubei Province, with a confirmed investment income of 188 million yuan. Excluding the profit and loss impact of consolidation and repurchase transactions in the first half of the year in Qianchuan, Hubei, 1-3Q22 net profit increased by 11.15% compared with the same period last year, deducting 8.08% year-on-year growth in non-homed net profit.
From a quarterly point of view, the company's 1Q/2Q/3Q22 realized revenue of RMB 7.81 million, respectively, with a year-on-year income of + 8.35%, 18.38%, 19.77%, 0.41, 0.84, and 256 million, respectively, compared with the same period last year.
Trend of development
1. The strategy of "New original State + everyone's residence" continues to advance, and the category of cabinets performs well. 1) overall wardrobe: 1-3Q22 realized income of 1.364 billion yuan, same decrease of 5.12%, gross profit margin increased 1.82ppt to 39.15%; 2) Ambry: 1-3Q22 realized income of 185 million yuan, same increase of 34.17%, gross profit margin also increased to 28.64%; 3) wooden door: 1-3Q22 realized income of 388 million yuan, same decrease of 41.25%, gross profit margin increased 0.38ppt to 36.4%. 4) matching of finished products: 1-3Q22 realized income of 89 million yuan, with a decrease of 7.46%, and gross profit margin increased by 3.67ppt to 26.25%. 5) doors and windows: 1-3Q22 realized income of 21 million yuan, reduced by 51.27%, and gross profit margin decreased by 23.77ppt to-23.33%.
2. The gross profit margin has increased, and the cost side is generally stable. The company's gross profit margin in the first three quarters was 35.97%, year-on-year + 1.9ppt. From the expense side, the company's expense rate in the first three quarters was 21.67%, year-on-year + 2.0ppt, in which the sales / management + R & D / financial expense rate was 10.20%, 10.23%, 1.24%, respectively, and + 1.2ppt/+0.8ppt/0ppt. Under the combined influence, the net interest rate in the first three quarters was 17.95%, which was + 8.3ppt compared with the same period last year.
3. The growth of direct channels is good, and the structure of bulk business continues to be optimized. From the point of view of different channels: 1) directly operated stores:
1-3Q22 realized income of 67 million yuan, an increase of 21.76%, gross profit margin decreased 4.49ppt to 53.85%, net increase of 1 to 28 stores compared with the beginning of the year; 2) Distribution stores: 1-3Q22 realized income of 1.613 billion yuan, with a decrease of 6.92%, gross profit margin increased to 35.82%, and distribution stores net clearance of 190 to 1816 stores compared with the beginning of the year, mainly due to the divestiture of Qianchuan, Hubei Province 3) bulk business: 1-3Q22 realized revenue of 366 million yuan, with a decrease of 37.29%, and gross profit margin decreased by 0.33ppt to 36.2%.
Profit forecast and valuation
Taking into account the investment income and retail business adjustment brought about by the transfer of equity in Qianchuan, Hubei Province, we raise the 2022 net profit forecast by 40% to 444 million yuan, and lower the 2023 net profit forecast by 5% to 357 million yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 2022 shock 10 times Pmax E in 2023, maintaining an industry rating and target price of 12 yuan, and corresponding to 2022 pound 2023, respectively. There is 7% upside compared to the current share price.
Risk
Under the influence of the epidemic in some areas, the real estate boom has declined more than expected, and competition in the industry has further intensified.
