This report is read as follows:
With volume premium, the cost is slightly reduced; the market price of thermal coal is high, Q4 performance can be expected; railway transport business increases significantly, methanol business losses.
Main points of investment:
Maintain profit forecasts, target prices, and increase ratings. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company achieved a net profit of 1.528 billion yuan (+ 18.71%), slightly higher than expected. As a market-oriented sales company, the company's performance was basically not affected by the price limit policy. To maintain the company 2022, 2023, and 2024, EPS 1.48, 1.62, and 1.72, maintain the target price, 10.56, and increase the holding rating.
If the price is paid by volume, the cost will be reduced slightly. The 22Q3 net profit of the company was 605 million yuan, down 7.88% from the same period last year and 0.83% from the previous month. Volume premium on the revenue side: 1) Q3 coal output of 4.1684 million tons (month-on-month + 4.4%), sales volume of 4.3081 million tons (month-on-month ratio + 8.6%), production increasing quarter by quarter; 2) Q3 ton coal income of 570 yuan / ton (month-on-month ratio-4.3%). Cost end-to-month decline: Q3 tons of coal cost 212 yuan / ton (month-on-month ratio-0.7%), the company strictly controls costs, and it is expected that costs will remain stable in the future. The expense side was affected by the increase in interest expenses, which increased somewhat: the four expenses of Q3 totaled 229 million yuan (month-on-month ratio + 12.8%), of which the financial cost was 66 million yuan (month-on-month ratio + 83.3%).
The market price of thermal coal is high, Q4 performance can be expected. 1) since mid-August, coal prices have risen rapidly. Coal prices in Qinhuangdao Port have currently exceeded 1600 yuan / ton, and the average price of coal sold by the company's Q4 is expected to increase compared with the previous month. 2) on September 28, the company's Hongyi Coal Mine (2.4 million tons) began joint trial operation, and Q4 will contribute to the increase.
The railway transport business increased significantly, while the methanol business lost money. 1) the railway transport business benefits from the good influence of the coal market, with an increase in transport volume and a significant increase in gross profit. Q3 railway transport volume is 1.9031 million tons (+ 10.70%) and gross profit is 33.3013 million yuan (+ 42.26%). 2) methanol business is affected by maintenance and high coal prices, resulting in a gross profit loss of 128800 tons of Q3 (+ 28.41%) and a gross profit loss of 72.1226 million yuan.
Risk hint: the macro-economy is lower than expected and coal prices fall faster than expected.
