Event: the company released its three-quarter report in 2022, with revenue of 1.2 billion yuan (+ 23.8% year-on-year) and net profit of 321 million yuan (+ 81.9%) in the first three quarters. 2022Q3 achieved revenue of 381 million yuan (year-on-year + 5.79%, month-on-month-14.2%) and net profit of 112 million yuan (year-on-year + 69.7%, month-on-month-9.82%).
Q3 performance maintained a good level, gross profit margin reached a record high: the company's performance growth in the first three quarters of 2022 is mainly due to the continued release of production capacity and the improvement of product profitability. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin was 36.3%, a year-on-year increase of 7.57 pct;2022Q3 gross profit margin of 37.8%, a year-on-year increase of 10.3 pct, a month-on-month increase of 2.01 pct, a record high. Due to the increase in exchange rate gains, financial expenses have been reduced. According to the announcement, the "High Purity hydrogen and Special Gas Project (Phase I)" and "expansion Project with an annual production capacity of 20,000 tons of methyl tetrahydrophthalic anhydride" has been completed. with the gradual climbing of the production capacity of 20,000 tons of methyl tetrahydrophthalic anhydride, the application of wind power in 2022 will bring new profit growth points for the company; "maleic anhydride derivatives, functional materials intermediates and R & D center project" is under orderly construction and is expected to be completed and put into production on September 30, 2023.
The large-scale wind turbine blade pultrusion process will drive the new demand of methyl tetrahydrophthalic anhydride, the company will fully enjoy the dividend: pultrusion process instead of traditional perfusion process has gradually become a widely used technology for manufacturing wind power blade girder since 2021, and the permeability is expected to increase by 2022. The principle of pultrusion process determines that methyl tetrahydrophthalic anhydride is the most suitable curing agent. According to the industrial network, the effective production capacity of methyl tetrahydrophthalic anhydride in China is about 90,000 tons. According to our previous report, "wind power girder processing technology innovation, methyl tetrahydrophthalic anhydride is expected to rise in both quantity and price". The use of methyl tetrahydrophthalic anhydride corresponding to 1GW wind power blades is about 400t. Based on the new installed capacity of 80GW in 2023, it will increase the demand for methyl tetrahydrophthalic anhydride by more than 30,000 tons. According to China Power Grid, the installed capacity in the fourth quarter of 2022 is expected to reach more than 25GW, equivalent to the first three quarters combined, and the demand for methyl tetrahydrophthalic anhydride is expected to increase rapidly from the fourth quarter. At present, there is less production capacity of methyl tetrahydrophthalic anhydride under construction in China, and the company is expected to enjoy the first wave of dividends brought by the demand for wind power. At the same time, there are many isomers of methyl tetrahydrophthalic anhydride, and the products are diversified, which will lead to high customer certification barriers and long testing cycle. The company has the first-mover advantage of cutting into the wind power field, and is expected to obtain stable downstream customer resources.
Investment suggestion: the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 420 million yuan, 750 million yuan and 850 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 24, 14 and 12 times of PE, maintaining the buy-A rating.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuations, lower-than-expected demand and so on.