This report is read as follows:
The progress of emission reduction transformation in high pollution industries is higher than expected, the demand for rigid pollution source monitoring and ecological environment state control monitoring is expected, and the business growth of the company's complete set of analysis solutions is expected.
Main points of investment:
Coverage for the first time, giving a "overweight" rating. We predict that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 2.66,3.51 and 427 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.42,0.56,0.68 yuan respectively. Taking into account:
1) the acceleration of emission reduction and transformation in high emission industries, and the accelerated release of the demand for continuous monitoring of pollution sources; 2) the refinement of the national environmental monitoring network; the demand for monitoring equipment and operation and maintenance services at national control stations; 3) it is suitable for multi-scene industrial process analysis. The company's technology and services have been recognized downstream and have a strong ability to obtain orders continuously. Give the company the target price of 11.34 yuan, 33% upward space.
A small number of domestic scientific instruments master the core technology, and the products span environmental monitoring and multi-industrial process analysis scenarios. The company started from the thermal power industry flue gas on-line monitoring system (CEMS) and petrochemical industry process analysis system, through technical iterations and overseas mergers and acquisitions continue to expand the product line, covering environmental monitoring, thermal and non-electric industry pollution source monitoring and electronic-level industrial process analysis scenarios.
Heavy pollution emission reduction and ecological environment monitoring network and other application scenarios demand volume, the company's market expansion speed is expected to exceed expectations. China's air pollution has not been completely solved, and the ultra-low emission transformation of industrial pollution sources such as cement, iron and steel will continue. It is a rigid demand to set up CEMS at the emission point of the emission reduction and transformation project to achieve "tree installation". The transformation speed up to release the sales potential of the company's CEMS system. In the future, it will further enhance the fineness of the ecological environment monitoring network and bring the demand for equipment and operation and maintenance services at the national control points. The company is expected to obtain the monitoring station operation and maintenance service business by virtue of equipment technology and service advantages.
The technical strength of high-precision analysis equipment is recognized, and there are opportunities for value revaluation. Subsidiary gas chromatography and food process analysis can reach ppb level and ppm level respectively, and the technology has been approved by leading manufacturers.
The company is expected to enter the high-end instrument application market, and high business barriers are expected to create value revaluation opportunities.
Risk hints: the risk of technical iteration, the lower-than-expected emission reduction and transformation, and the risk of accounts receivable recovery.