Events:
The company released the third-quarter report of 2022, showing that in the first three quarters of 2022, the company realized revenue of 5.312 billion yuan, year-on-year + 32.80%; net profit of 241 million yuan, + 146.87%; and non-return net profit of 147 million yuan, + 187.26%. Of this total, 2022Q3's single-quarter revenue was 2.001 billion yuan, + 27.46% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit returned to its mother was 91 million yuan, + 293.92% compared with the same period last year.
Comments:
The feed business is growing steadily, and the market share continues to increase. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company's total feed sales were 1.057 million tons, an increase of more than 17 percent over the same period last year, with revenue of 4.468 billion yuan, including 14.34 yuan for special aquatic feed and 3.034 billion yuan for livestock and poultry feed. We believe that the company's leading position of special aquatic feed is stable. In the future, with the continued development of the company's eel breeding business and the integrated development of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the company's feed business market share will also increase steadily.
The fish yield of eel is in line with the expectation, and the gross profit of reducing cost and increasing benefit is stable. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company sold about 5819 tons of commodity eel with a revenue of 494 million yuan, of which Q3 sold about 2428 tons in a single quarter, with a revenue of about 195 million yuan. The corresponding price per ton of Q3 was about 80,000 yuan per ton, which was lower than that in the second half of the year, mainly due to the short-term slight decline in the eel market with the passing of the Japanese Eel Festival. However, the company's Q3 farming costs fell further, and the breeding gross profit margin remained at 41%, which remained stable in the first half of the year.
Eel prices are still historically low, and the company's eel business is expected to see both volume and price increases next year. At present, the unit price of eel is still at a historically low level, and in the short term, with the approach of the traditional peak consumption season (Spring Festival, etc.), the domestic eel price is expected to rise; in the medium to long term, considering the impact of the decrease in the supply of eel seedlings and the decline in the number of eel ponds this year, the purchase price of eel next year is expected to continue next year, and there is still room for further increase. According to the company's plan, the company's commercial eel output is expected to double next year on the basis of 8000 tons this year, so we are optimistic that the company will usher in a simultaneous rise in eel volume and price under the high market next year, and continue to maintain the high growth trend of breeding business.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we estimate that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 325 million yuan, 629 million yuan and 754 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.75 yuan, 1.44 yuan and 1.73 yuan respectively.
Risk tips: capacity release and expansion are not as expected; product market price fluctuation risk; natural disaster risk.