The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to a research report published by China Merchants Securities, fluorine chemical products are widely used in military, chemical, machinery and other fields due to their excellent properties such as chemical resistance, high and low temperature resistance, aging resistance, low friction, and insulation, and have become one of the fastest growing, most high-tech and most promising industries in the chemical industry. Fluorine-containing refrigerants are being pushed into the elimination process by environmental protection policies. Refrigerants will experience a loss reduction market next year. The relationship between supply and demand will gradually tighten, and the new energy industry will be hot, driving the explosion of demand for PVDF and lithium hexafluorophosphate. The market for new fluorinated polymer materials will gradually expand, and the industry's “recommended” rating will be given the first “recommendation” rating.
Investment advice: I strongly recommend Yonghe Co., Ltd. (605020.SH). It is recommended to pay attention to Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160.SH), Sanmei Co., Ltd. (), and Zhongxin Fluorine (002915.SZ). 603379.SH
The main views of China Merchants Securities are as follows:
The focus of chemical value has moved downward, and high value-added products have ushered in new opportunities for development.
The value of the fluorine chemical industry focuses on middle and downstream products. In the future, the main direction of fluorine chemical development in China will increase the proportion of fine chemicals containing fluorine. As the most important upstream raw material in the industrial chain, fluorite has been overexploited, and the storage ratio is far below the world average, so it is protected by policy regulation restrictions. Production restrictions have increased the shortage of supply, and the market has turned to overseas imports. Among them, high-grade fluorite still faces a gap. Phosphate ore has become an important substitute for raw materials. It is limited by current process technology and production scale, and may be widely used in the future.
At the end of the baseline year, refrigerants ushered in a loss reduction market, leading the industry to improve.
The international convention “Montreal Protocol” and “Kigali Amendment” set out plans to reduce HCFCs and HFCs, driving the renewal and iteration of fluorinated refrigerants. Beginning in '24, China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment will formulate and disclose production and consumption quotas for third-generation refrigerants. As demand for downstream household air conditioners and refrigerators continues to grow, compounded by the expansion of export demand, the supply and demand pattern of third-generation refrigerants will be tense. In 2020-2022, various fluorine chemical companies compete fiercely, refrigerant prices and costs have been inverted for a long time, and various companies have seriously lost third-generation refrigerants. As the baseline year ends, refrigerant prices will rise, and the fluorine chemical industry will experience a loss reduction market.
The downstream application fields of fluoropolymer materials have expanded, and the rate of import substitution has accelerated.
The excellent performance of FEP tubes is of great help to high-precision industries. Pipes made of FEP material can protect lines from the external environment. They are used in wires and cables for electronic equipment transmission lines used at high temperatures and high frequencies, connections within electronic computers, and aerospace wires. PFA plastics have excellent processability, and their application fields are constantly expanding. In particular, demand in the high-end market continues to grow. Especially for applications in the semiconductor industry, high-end PFA products stand out for their ability to withstand extreme chemical environments with strong acids, strong bases, high temperatures and high pressure, and have become the first choice for wet etching and cleaning process tools.
Demand in the new energy industry is booming, and fine chemicals containing fluorine are on the rise.
Lithium hexafluorophosphate is the most mainstream lithium battery electrolyte. Lithium batteries are mainly used in power batteries, consumer electronics, energy storage and other fields. China is now the largest NEV market, and power battery shipments are rising strongly; under the influence of the epidemic, telecommuting and online classes are rapidly becoming popular, and laptop and tablet shipments are rising. Strong demand is driving the explosion of production capacity. Currently, the supply and demand structure of lithium hexafluorophosphate is out of tight balance. Most of the physical and chemical properties of LiFSi are superior to lithium hexafluorophosphate. As technology advances and production scale expands, the synthesis process of LiFSi will be simplified, production costs will be reduced, and it is expected to be used to replace lithium hexafluorophosphate.
Risk warning: risk of falling product demand, risk of rising raw material prices, risk of new production capacity falling short of expectations.