Event: the company released its three-quarter report in 2022. During the reporting period, the company realized revenue of 1.078 billion yuan, year-on-year + 40.38%, net profit of 354 million yuan, year-on-year-4.89%, equivalent to 0.65 yuan per share of EPS, and weighted average ROE of 14.74%. Of which Q3 achieved revenue of 278 million yuan in a single quarter, + 17.93% year-on-year, and net profit of 57 million yuan, + 7.85% and-60.96% respectively.
Vitamin D3 prices fell, quarter-on-quarter performance declined, the company's performance under short-term pressure. The average price of vitamin D3 in the company's traditional business in the third quarter was 610,000 yuan / ton, down 24.21% from the second quarter. 25 hydroxyl VD3 delivery delay and other factors led to a month-on-month decline in the third quarter performance. At present, the price of VD3 is 57000 / ton, which is 3% of the historical price quantile since 2007. most enterprises in the industry are at a loss, and some manufacturers have reduced or stopped production. We expect that the scope for VD3 price decline is limited, the industry loss can not be sustained for a long time, and there is a high probability that the price will be restored to a reasonable level in the future. At present, the company can still rely on the advantage of integration to maintain a better profit than other enterprises, and we expect the company's performance to improve month-on-month in the fourth quarter.
Large single 25-hydroxy VD3 has been put into production, multi-vitamin steady progress, with greater performance flexibility in the future. The heavyweight product 25-hydroxy VD3 launched by the company has high technical barriers and large added value, which is mainly used for feed addition downstream. Due to the low addition amount, coupled with a better potency ratio than VD3, the downstream acceptance is high, and the production capacity of 25-hydroxyl VD3 has been expanded from 100t to 1200 t. The company's VA, VE and other multi-vitamin projects are progressing steadily and still have a high growth momentum next year and the year after next.
Layout of fully active VD3, a strong competitor in the osteoporosis drug market in the future. Domestic osteoporosis drug market 30 billion yuan, of which active VD3 osteoporosis drugs, due to the difficulty of research and development of raw materials, there are no enterprises in the world mass production, the company plans to issue convertible bond project layout of ossifying alcohol API and its preparation products, relying on its own API whole industry chain and garden pharmaceutical preparation advantages, the company is expected to become a strong competitor in the field of osteoporosis medicine in the future.
Profit forecast and investment advice: we expect the company's net return profit in 2022 to 2024 to be 504, 665, and 858 million yuan, equivalent to EPS of 0.92, 1.21, 1.56 yuan respectively, and the current stock price is 16X / 12X/10X times of PE valuation, continue to recommend.
Risk tips: new project production schedule is not as expected, product prices fluctuate sharply, downstream demand growth slows down.
