Event: Tianma Science and Technology achieved an income of 5.312 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2021, an increase of 32.8% over the same period last year, a net profit of 241 million yuan, an increase of 187.26% over the same period last year, and a deduction of 238 million yuan in non-net profit, an increase of 211.96% over the same period last year.
2022Q3 achieved revenue of 2.001 billion yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 27.46% over the same period last year, a net profit of 91 million yuan, an increase of 293.92% over the same period last year, and a deduction of 91 million yuan in non-net profit, an increase of 329.2% over the same period last year.
The eel culture business continues to sell volume, and the culture cost continues to improve: the company sold 5819 tons of commercial eel in the first three quarters of 2022, of which 2022Q3 sold about 2428 tons of commercial eel. Due to the weather, the company's fish release plan slowed down in the third quarter, and the fish output decreased slightly compared with the second quarter (Q2 fish output was about 2500 tons). On the sales side, the company's main fish in the third quarter was 2.5p-3p 's American eel, with a single-quarter sales of 80,000 yuan / ton, a month-on-month decline of 0.5 million yuan / ton. On the cost side, we estimate that the complete cost of the company's Q3 is about 55,000 yuan / ton, and Q2 continues to improve, with a decrease of about 1000 yuan / ton. The net profit per ton declined slightly due to the fluctuation of sales price, and the net profit per ton of Q3 is expected to be about 25,000 yuan / ton, down about 3000 yuan / ton from the previous month. In the future, with the recovery of consumer demand in the fourth quarter, fish prices are expected to pick up, and the cost of increasing fish output quarter by quarter is expected to continue to be optimized, and it is optimistic that the company's net profit per ton will increase steadily.
The volume and price of feed business has risen, and the product competitiveness is prominent: the company's sales of special feed and livestock and poultry feed have reached a record high. from January to September, the company's cumulative feed sales totaled 1.0568 million tons, an increase of 17.5% over the same period last year, and feed sales revenue reached 4.468 billion yuan, accounting for 84% of business income. Among them, sales of special water feed in the first three quarters were 155000 tons, an increase of 21.3% over the same period last year, with sales revenue of 1.434 billion yuan. It accounted for 27% of the operating income, an increase of 19% over the same period last year. Sales of livestock and poultry feed were 901000 tons, an increase of 130000 tons, or 16.8%, over the same period last year. Sales revenue reached 3.034 billion yuan, an increase of 26% over the same period last year. It accounts for 57% of revenue. In a single quarter, the company's 2022Q3 special water and livestock feed sales were 6.5t and 325000 tons respectively, an increase of 15.9% and 3.5% over the same period last year. The feed sector continues to maintain steady growth, and we expect the company's feed sector to achieve a net profit of about 30 million in the third quarter.
Expenses: as of 2022Q3, the company's sales expense rate / management expense rate / R & D expense rate / financial expense rate were 0.88% 2.26% 1.73% 1.07% respectively, which decreased 0.23pct/, decreased 0.16pct/ growth, 0.04pct/ growth 0.65pct, respectively.
The overall expense rate of the company remains stable.
Investment suggestion: the company has a complete industrial chain, the competitiveness of the feed business has improved steadily, the eel culture has continued to increase, and the company's profitability has been greatly improved. we expect the company to achieve a net profit of 3.70,7.43 and 1.045 billion yuan in 22-24, an increase of 342.3%, 101.1% and 40.6% respectively over the same period last year, and the corresponding EPS is 0.85,1.70,2.40 yuan respectively. The PE corresponding to the closing price on October 22nd was 21.1,10.5,7.4 times, respectively.
Risk tips: animal epidemic outbreak, sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, exchange rate fluctuations, policy changes.