Event: the company released the three-quarter report of 2022. In the first three quarters of 2022, the company realized revenue of 11.676 billion yuan, year-on-year + 37.05%, and net profit of 594 million yuan, + 152.12%. Of which, 22Q3 achieved revenue of 4.452 billion yuan, + 49.76% year-on-year, and net profit of 243 million yuan, + 9772.23%.
Our comments on this are as follows:
Revenue end: 22Q3 revenue hit a record high. 22Q3 achieved revenue of 4.452 billion yuan, year-on-year + 49.76%, month-on-quarter + 19.26%, single-quarter revenue reached an all-time high, automotive metal parts lightweight business contributed the main increase. According to the announcement, the revenue of the lightweight business of automotive metal parts reached 10.215 billion yuan in the first three quarters of the announcement, an increase of 39.64% over the same period last year, of which the automotive aluminum alloy wheel business and magnesium alloy business increased by 44.75% and 67.44% respectively. The operating income of Tonghang aircraft manufacturing business reached 1.461 billion yuan, an increase of 21.27% over the same period last year. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the company's revenue has continued to grow significantly compared with the same period last year, mainly due to a sharp rise in magnesium-aluminum alloy prices compared with the same period last year, and the optimization of price linkage settlement mechanism has led to rapid sales growth compared with the same period last year. The improvement of 22Q3's domestic automobile production and sales also promoted the company's business to achieve a rapid growth of 19.26%. Since the beginning of this year, the continuous relaxation of epidemic control abroad is conducive to the development of the company's navigable aircraft business.
Profit side: a substantial increase in revenue, dilution period expense rate, RMB depreciation brings exchange gains.
22Q3 achieved a net profit of 243 million yuan, + 9772.23% year-on-year, + 39.54% month-on-month, single-quarter gross profit of 17.99%, year-on-year + 5.47pct. After the optimization of the price linkage settlement mechanism, the price of the company's products increased, hedging the rise in the price of raw materials, and 22Q3 gross profit margin increased significantly compared with the same period last year, but there is still room for improvement compared with the previous high gross margin of the company. Revenue increased significantly compared with the same period last year, diluting the period expense rate. The 22Q3 single-quarter period expense rate is 9.29%, year-on-year-2.97pct. Specifically, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate is 1.34%, 4.11%, 2.88%, 0.95%, respectively, compared with the same period last year-0.54pct/-0.76pct/-0.42pct/-1.25pct. Among them, the financial expense rate fell the most, which is expected to be related to the exchange gains brought about by the sharp depreciation of the RMB in the third quarter. According to the company's foreign currency financial statements in the first three quarters of the announcement, the translation difference increased by 201.7554 million yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 304.59% over the same period last year.
Establish the development model of automobile lightweight and navigation business dual-engine drive. The company is committed to becoming a "global automotive metal lightweight promoter", has formed a "magnesium alloy-aluminum alloy-high-strength steel" and other metal materials lightweight application as the main line of automotive parts subdivision leading industry plate. While actively developing the product layout of aluminum alloy and high-strength steel, the company will focus on promoting the application of magnesium alloy products in automobiles. Magnesium Redding, a subsidiary of the company, is one of the most important manufacturers of lightweight magnesium alloy components in the world. it occupies a large share of the magnesium alloy market in North America, and the company will introduce magnesium reading mature products into the domestic market, which is expected to achieve rapid growth. In 2020, the company acquired a 55% stake in the aircraft industry, and the core asset was diamond aircraft, which formally established a dual-engine-driven development model of automobile lightweight and navigation business.
In 2021, the aircraft industry introduced Qingdao Wansheng Chengfeng and Beijing Aviation Development Fund, which are controlled by state assets, as strategic investors to jointly accelerate the development of the domestic navigation market and pry up the navigation industry trillion industry market. The company's aviation aircraft manufacturing industry is committed to becoming a "global leader in general aircraft innovation manufacturing enterprises". Diamond aircraft will continue to promote the linkage of resources in Austria, Canada and China in accordance with the global R & D and manufacturing strategy, promote the construction of domestic production and manufacturing bases, speed up the landing of new models such as Diamond DA50 and DA62, and inject new impetus into the company's development.
Profit forecast: as the company's revenue and profit performance continue to exceed expectations, the company's profit forecast is raised, and the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 16.19 billion yuan, 17.45 billion yuan and 18.74 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.2%, 7.8% and 7.4%, respectively. The net profit of homing was 820 million yuan, 890 million yuan and 1.01 billion yuan respectively, and the year-on-year growth rate was 146.4%, 7.7% and 13.7% respectively. Corresponding to the current market capitalization, PE is 16.1,14.9 and 13.1 times respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: domestic passenger car sales are not as expected; raw material prices remain high; magnesium alloy market development is not as expected; navigable aircraft business development is not as expected; goodwill impairment risk; information disclosure risk