Zhitong Financial APP learned that recently, Wei Dong of Guolianan Fund saidThe current wait-and-see state of the market is expected to improve to some extent in the next six months.The US interest rate hike cycle is likely to peak in the next six months and is expected to be in the first quarter of next year at the latest. In the future, we can focus on more positive catalytic factors, which is expected to partially hedge the impact of external risk preference.
In the third quarter, the market correction was much larger than expected.By the end of the quarter, the CSI 300 Index basically erased the rebound in the second quarter, while the rest of the gem Index and the CSI 500 were also basically close to the bottom of the previous period. In terms of industry, except for a few sectors such as photovoltaic, military, semiconductor equipment and real estate, other industries fell sharply in the second quarter. The current allocation of Guolianan Fund is mainly semiconductor equipment, C design, military industry, non-ferrous materials and some consumer medicine, semiconductor equipment performance is strong, other industries are following the index performance.
Wei Dong believes that the industry he chooses will have more deterministic growth next year, even ifFor example, there are some headwinds in semiconductor manufacturing, but the prospect is still promising, and the future rise of China's advanced manufacturing industry is unstoppable. At the same time, with the gradual promotion of relevant policies, he believes that the future recovery of consumption will also become the focus of market attention.
Wei Dong believes that there are two reasons for the decline in the market in the third quarter. One is that the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates sharply, the US dollar is super strong, and interest rates on US bonds have reached record highs, which puts significant pressure on US stocks and global stock markets. With the increasingly complex international situation, the market is worried that the global economy may enter a serious recession in the future, and the corresponding to the recession is whether the securities market will fall into the energy market. The ebb of the domestic stock market is obviously a reflection of the global stock market decline.
Second, under the influence of the general environment, the demand of the domestic economy is weak, and the crisis of superimposed private real estate has always been unable to be completely alleviated. Although domestic financial policies tend to be loose, liquidity is relatively abundant, exports and manufacturing industries are OK, but market sentiment is also gradually becoming cautious.
From all angles, the overall market valuation may be at a relatively historic low.It is calculated that the risk premium of the Shanghai Composite Index or CSI 300 to government bond yields is close to historical extremes, while more than half of the industries are in the bottom 1/4 of historical valuations.At present, some indicators already have the characteristics of partial bottom, and the risk of continuing to decline sharply may be limited, but the market turnaround still needs to alleviate the main contradiction and more potential catalysts.