Core ideas:
The company announces that it will report three quarters in 2022. 2022Q1-3 achieved revenue of 7.532 billion yuan, an increase of 7.03% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 444 million yuan, an increase of 5.66% over the same period last year, deducting 374 million yuan of non-return net profit, a decrease of 0.83% over the same period last year. Among them, 2022Q3 realized revenue / return net profit / deducted non-return net profit of 31.62 million yuan in one quarter, up 26.97% and 13.48% over the same period last year. Q3 single-quarter income growth we expect to be mainly due to the rapid growth of gold business, gold jewelry business in 2022Q2 affected by the epidemic performance significantly declined, in 2022Q3 showed restorative growth; at the same time, the company's printing and dyeing business maintained a good recovery. Q3 profit growth rate is lower than the income growth rate, we expect that the gold jewelry business growth is relatively rapid, gold jewelry business is mainly wholesale and OEM, the profit margin is low.
Profitability has improved and the expense rate has increased during the period. The gross margin / net margin of 2022Q1-3 is 11.85%, 6.65%, 0.45%, 0.14, 0.14, 2022Q3, 11.17%, 6.08%, 6.08%,-2.23/-0.94pct. In terms of expenses, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates of 2022Q1-3 are 1.03%, 2.00%, 2.00% and 0.22%, respectively, with year-on-year changes in YOY+0.03/+0.10/+0.13/-0.12pct.
The operation and profits of printing and dyeing business continue to grow from January to August in 2022, and the export situation is good. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the operating income of printing and dyeing enterprises above scale from January to August in 2022 was 202.446 billion yuan, an increase of 8.49% over the same period last year, and the total profit was 7.617 billion yuan, an increase of 0.86% over the same period last year. According to Chinese customs statistics, from January to August 2022, the export volume of eight categories of printing and dyeing products was 20.085 billion meters, an increase of 10.06 percent over the same period last year; the export value was 21.286 billion US dollars, an increase of 18.31 percent over the same period last year.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.69 yuan per share, 0.78 yuan per share and 0.87 yuan per share respectively. With reference to the average PE and comparable company valuation in the past three years, it is given 10 times PE in 2023, corresponding to a reasonable value of 7.81 yuan per share, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hint. The risk of fluctuation of raw materials, the risk of fierce market competition and the risk of depressed demand.