The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huaxi Securities released a research report saying that as the new infrastructure for education opens, the core target of education informatization may accelerate to an upward inflection point. The bank believes that localization substitution is an important trend and driving factor. It speculates that refinancing of 200 billion dollars is just the beginning. It is likely that the strength of subsequent policies will expand marginally, and the scale of credit support is expected to reach the trillion level. Relevant demand may be released centrally, and orders for education informatization are expected to continue to explode in the fourth quarter. The core beneficiaries include: 1) the direction of digital transformation and construction of schools, 2) the direction of scientific research instruments, and 3) the direction of internship training.
Investment advice:
1) The direction of digital transformation and construction of schools: leading smart classrooms in colleges and vocational schools (003005.SZ), smart campus leader New Cape (300248.SZ), leading interactive electronic whiteboard/smart blackboard leader Honghe Technology (002955.SZ), smart recruitment leader Jiafa Education (300559.SZ), AI smart education leader, HKUST Cyberspace (002230.SZ), smart display and interactive terminal leader Shiyuan Co., Ltd. (002841.SZ), smart education giant Weizhi Energy (001339.SZ), etc.;
2) The direction of scientific research instruments: Oscilloscope targets such as Puyuan Precision Electronics (688337.SH), Dingyang Technology (688112.SH), Uniride (), and mass spectrometry targets such as Concentration Technology (300203.SZ), Wanyi Technology (), Hexin Instruments (), etc. 688628.SH 688600.SH 688622.SH
3) Internship training direction: simulation training base leads Jiean Hi-Tech (300845.SZ).
Incidents:In September, the central government formulated a policy of interest rate discount+special refinancing “combo punch” to support equipment purchases and upgrades in the fields of education, health, etc. At the beginning of October, loan contracts for upgrading equipment in universities, hospitals, etc. began to be implemented.
The main views of Huaxi Securities are as follows:
Policy Sorting and Interpretation
In September, the central government formulated a policy of interest rate discount+special refinancing “combo punch” to support equipment purchases and upgrades in the fields of education, health, etc. The relevant policies published publicly are sorted out in chronological order as follows:
On September 7, the National Standing Committee made it clear that new loans for equipment purchase/upgrading to universities, vocational colleges, and training bases will be subsidized 2.5 percentage points:
On September 13, the National Standing Committee further determined that the People's Bank of China will provide special reloan support for medium- to long-term loans to upgrade equipment in related fields in the fourth quarter, making it clear that the actual loan costs related to the fourth quarter will not be higher than 0.7%:
On September 28, the People's Bank of China's special refinancing policy came into effect, clarifying 10 areas of support: according to the matters agreed at the executive meeting of the State Council, the People's Bank of China set up special refinancing for equipment renewal and transformation to provide financial institutions with low-cost capital to guide financial institutions to issue loans to manufacturing and other fields to support equipment renewal and transformation on the premise that they make independent decisions and bear their own risks.
Based on the analysis of the content of the three policies, the bank believes that:
1) According to the central bank's response to reporters' questions, the bank speculates that as of September 28, the relevant projects should have formed a list of alternative projects, that is, the demand for 200 billion projects has been submitted and needs to be released urgently;
2) For universities, vocational schools, etc., all eligible projects entering the list can obtain medium- to long-term loans with interest rates not higher than 3.2%, and can enjoy a 2.5% interest rate discount for two years;
3) For financial institutions, all eligible loans issued to the projects on the list before 12.31 will enjoy reloan financial support provided by the People's Bank of China at 100% of the loan principal amount.
4) In terms of scale, the bank believes that 200 billion yuan is the lower limit of the scale of this support policy. According to the Securities Times, the regulatory authorities encouraged 21 national banks to add about 1.7 trillion yuan in medium- and long-term manufacturing loans from January to July, and encouraged an additional 1 trillion yuan to 1.5 trillion yuan from August to December. The bank believes that with policy encouragement and central bank support, a large percentage of the medium- to long-term loans of 1-1.5 trillion yuan added in August-December will still be converted into medium- to long-term loans for this equipment purchase and renewal.
Reiterates that the education industry, mainly universities and vocational schools, is the core driving force of this policy
Colleges and universities and vocational schools are the key targets of support. The bank believes it is clear that education is the key area of policy support this time, and that universities, vocational colleges, and training bases are the key targets of support. In the three policy announcements, education ranked first, and universities, vocational colleges, and training bases were given priority. Beneficial directions of project investment: The bank anticipates that major equipment purchases and construction of supporting facilities for universities, vocational colleges, and training bases will mainly include,
(1) Basic and teaching experimental equipment; (2) High-end scientific research instruments and equipment; (3) Digital transformation and construction of schools, such as information center construction, smart campuses, smart classrooms, smart laboratories, smart libraries, data center localization replacement, etc.; (4) internship training equipment and supporting equipment, etc.
The strength of follow-up policies may expand marginal
The bank believes that localization substitution is an important trend and driving factor. The bank speculates that refinancing of 200 billion dollars is only the beginning, that the strength of subsequent policies will expand marginally, and the scale of credit support is expected to reach the trillion level. Relevant demand may be released centrally, and orders for education informatization are expected to continue to explode in the fourth quarter.
Risk warning:Policy implementation fell short of expectations, the impact of epidemic prevention and control on project implementation, Sino-US game emergencies, market systemic risks, etc.