Event: the company released the latest operation of Q3 in 2022. The overall platform pipelining of 2022Q3 Li Ning Co. Ltd. (excluding Li Ning Co. Ltd. YOUNG) achieved 10% growth in the middle of 20%. Under the background of weak recovery in consumption and high base, pipelining growth is in line with expectations.
Online and retail performance is eye-catching. 22Q3 in the context of the easing of the epidemic, the company moderately deepens the discount, and the flow is better than Q2. From a channel point of view, 2022Q3 online / offline pipelining has achieved growth of 20% in the middle of Murray 30% and 10% in the middle of Murray 20% respectively, and the online performance is outstanding. Retail / wholesale in offline channels achieved growth of 20%, 30%, 30%, 10%, 20%, respectively, and retail performance was better than wholesale.
With the expansion of channels, the efficiency of the store has improved steadily. By the end of September 2022, the number of Li Ning Co. Ltd. 's points of sale (excluding Li Ning Co. Ltd. YOUNG) was 6101, a net increase of 166over the beginning of the year and 164over the end of the previous quarter. Among them, retail stores increased by 179compared with the beginning of the year, 79 from the end of the previous quarter, and a net decrease of 13 wholesale outlets from the beginning of the year and a net increase of 85 from the end of the previous quarter. In addition, the number of Li Ning Co. Ltd. YOUNG outlets was 1238, a net increase of 36 over the beginning of the year and 63 from the end of the last quarter. While accelerating the opening of stores, the company's store efficiency has also achieved steady improvement. The same store sales of 22Q3 Li Ning Co. Ltd. 's entire platform point of sale (excluding Li Ning Co. Ltd. YOUNG) have achieved high unit growth, of which retail / wholesale / e-commerce single store sales have achieved medium / high unit / 10% color 20% growth, respectively.
The management is resilient under the disturbance of the epidemic situation. Since 2021, the company has improved the depth of the core model by reducing the width of commodities, optimizing the commodity structure and improving operational efficiency. At the same time, it has made efforts to create a direct and efficient store at the channel end, improve the efficiency of individual stores, and achieve strong performance resilience. Looking ahead, considering: 1) the channel end of the company still shows a trend of both quantity and effect rising under the epidemic, and is expected to release greater growth potential after the epidemic is eased; 2) as a benchmark domestic brand in the sports field, driven by the continuous iteration of professional products and the continuous efforts of the marketing side, it is expected to gain more market share.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.82,2.21,2.71 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 27,22 and 18 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the risk that the epidemic repeatedly affects terminal sales and the risk of intensified market competition.