summary
1. The company is a logistics platform under Guanghui Group
Positioning: Guanghui Logistics was reorganized and listed in 2016, and is the only modern logistics platform under Guanghui Group.
Business: The company's original business includes trade logistics, cold chain warehousing, real estate, etc., and stock value assets need to be transformed and strengthened; in the future, developing railway coal transportation business will be an important increase.
Strategy: The company's acquisition of the Hongnao Railway, an important asset for coal export from Guanghui Energy, has been implemented. Furthermore, it has established a “one railway, four logistics bases” strategic implementation plan, focusing on the main energy logistics business, and is expected to usher in a revaluation.
2. Traffic volume: Seen from the top down, demand for coal exports from Jiang is high, and the cargo volume of the Hongnao Railway is expected to exceed expectations
Overall supply and demand: Coal supply is becoming tight, China's main energy dependency is increasing, and policy support catalyzes the expansion of demand for coal production in Jiang.
Characteristics of Jiang coal: Jiang coal is of good quality, large reserves, and low mining costs. The share of raw coal production in the country is steadily increasing, and is expected to become an important addition to the three western regions in the future.
Transportation structure: The railway is in line with the general trend of coal transportation. The Hongnao Railway is an important coal mining area with high location barriers. Increased production in the Nao Maohu mining area plus incremental mining areas after the opening of the Jiangnao Line (Jiangjun Temple, Santang Lake, Balikun) are expected to drive traffic beyond expectations.
3. Freight price: still low, with conditions for price increases, which is expected to bring profit elasticity
There is room: The Development and Reform Commission approved the fare for the Hongnao Railway at 0.40 yuan/ton/km. Currently, the actual implemented freight rate is 0.225 yuan/ton/km. There is still a large amount of unused space. It is estimated that the static profit elasticity of the price increase is about 1.2 times.
Capable: For the Zhundong mining area, after the opening of the Nao Railway, we estimate that the cost of the entire Hongnao Line is about 27 yuan/ton lower than that of the original Wujiang-Lanxin Line, which corresponds to a price increase of 0.035 yuan/ton/km; for the Hami mining area, we estimate that the current integrated transportation (steam transport+railway) cost of the Hongnao Railway is slightly lower than that of the steam-operated Lanxin Line.
Cost-effectiveness: Compared with the Yulin mining area in Shaanxi, it is estimated that the railway transportation cost of Hami coal in Xinjiang to Lanzhou in Gansu via the Hongnao Line to Lanzhou in Gansu is only about 82 yuan/ton higher, but we analyze that the cost of coal mining in Jiang may be about 200-300 yuan/ton lower than that of Shaanxi coal, so it may be relatively cost-effective.
4. Profit prediction and valuation
The company's net profit for 2022-2024 is estimated to be 702 million yuan, 1,058 million yuan, and 1,647 billion yuan, respectively.
According to the division valuation, it is estimated that the company's current reasonable value is about 20.03 billion yuan, and there is still about 73% of the corresponding current price. In line with the general trend of coal export transportation, the company's acquisition of the Hongnao Railway, a subsidiary of the group, has been implemented, further focusing on the main energy logistics business. There is room to exceed expectations in terms of volume release and freight rate increases, maintaining the “buy” rating.