Main points of investment:
The "Naohong" railway is regarded as the golden section of Xinjiang energy output artery, and its performance is flexible. The gap between coal supply and demand in southwest China is expanding day by day, considering that Xinjiang is rich in coal resources and the pit mouth cost has significant advantages over Sanxi region, the policy supports Xinjiang to speed up the construction of a large-scale coal supply guarantee base, and the importance of Xinjiang coal transportation has become increasingly prominent. The Hongnao railway has a total length of 435.6 km, with an initial designed annual transport capacity of 39.5 million tons and a long-term capacity of 150 million tons per year. In the future, after connecting the Nao railway, it will effectively solve the problem of commodity transportation in the mining areas of Zhundong, Santanghu and Namaohu. The distance out of Xinjiang is about 300km shorter than that of the existing Wujiang-Lanxin line, and it has become the best channel for coal resources out of Xinjiang. For the Daqin Shuohuang Railway, there is room for profitability improvement. The freight for 22-24 years is assumed to be 0.225 yuan, and the estimated freight volume for 22 years is 20 million tons. taking into account the drainage of Nao railway and the return of bauxite freight for 24 years, the freight volume for 23-24 years is estimated to be 43 million tons and 68 million tons, respectively. The net profit after 22 years tax is estimated to be 205 million yuan, and the performance in 23-24 years is 1.05 billion yuan and 2.496 billion yuan respectively.
The outward transportation of Lanxin Line overlaps the diversion of Linha Line and Dunge Line, and the transportation bottleneck of Xinjiang coal transportation channel can be solved effectively. Not all of the company's Hongnao railway coal transportation is carried by Lanxin railway. On the one hand, through the diversion of some coal to Ningxia and Qinghai through Linha Railway and Dunge Railway, on the other hand, Lanxin Railway itself is also adjusting the transport capacity by means of capacity diversion and passenger and cargo diversion, and the bottleneck of transport capacity is expected to be properly solved.
Build Guangyuan comprehensive logistics base project, expand and cover the southwest market and establish a frontier bridgehead. The construction of Guangyuan logistics base will properly solve the problem of coal supply in Sichuan and Chongqing; starting from its own "coal supply", Sichuan has come forward to coordinate the transport capacity matching of Chengdu Railway Bureau and Lanzhou Railway Bureau, so as to open up the "last kilometer" for Xinjiang coal transportation. The construction of the logistics base is more fully guaranteed under the coordination of the government, and it is expected that peer-to-peer transportation can be realized and the vehicle problem can be solved in the future. In addition, the company has begun to ship container trains, and the shortage of gondolas is gradually being solved.
Profit forecast and rating. As a listed logistics enterprise of A shareholder camp, the company locates energy + cold chain + commerce and trade multi-dimensional logistics company.
Considering the substantial increase in transport capacity of the company's railway logistics sector in the next three years, based on the relative valuation model, the company's EPS in 2022-2024 is increased from 0.62,0.84,1.53 to 0.62,1.20,2.00 yuan, and the current market capitalization corresponds to 17x, 9x and 5X respectively. The energy logistics business of Daqin Railway is comparable to that of the company, the cold chain logistics business of Shun Feng Holdings is comparable to that of the company, and the business of China Merchants Shekou is comparable to the real estate business of the company, so these three companies are selected as industry standards. The industry average valuation PE from 2022 to 2024 is 18x, 14x and 12x, respectively. In addition, with reference to the period when the railway volume of Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway increased significantly from 2006 to 2009 and the main business was railway, the valuations were 25x, 57x and 16x respectively. The company's performance is flexible and maintains a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the decline in demand has led to lower-than-expected turnover; the construction progress of the Nao railway project will be lower than expected.