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小摩:各央行可能犯下鹰派政策错误,削减股票头寸

Komo: Central banks may make hawkish policy mistakes and cut stock positions

Zhitong Finance ·  Oct 18, 2022 11:53

Source: Zhitong Finance

Author: Zhao Jinbin

J.P. Morgan strategists released a report on Monday saying that the bank is cutting stock positions while increasing bond positions due to the increased risk that major central banks may make policy mistakes that are too hawkish.

Xiao Mo wrote in the global asset allocation report released on Monday that the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian situation has increased these risks.

The bank said that stock market volatility will still be high, and bond yields may continue to be an important driving factor driving the rise in stock market volatility in the short term.

However, Xiaomo also pointed out that investors will also pay attention to the company's performance in the third quarter. “Despite the incredibly strong corrective performance of earnings per share so far, earnings may eventually weaken in the third quarter,” the bank wrote.

Recently, bond yields have risen due to hawkish rhetoric from various central banks. In the US, “given market fluctuations and a lack of buyers, medium-term bond yields appear fragile,” the bank wrote. However, the bank added that it is reducing its bets that the yield spread on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds will flatten out. This spread is seen as a sign of an impending economic recession.

Editor/Corrine

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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